40/70 Benchmark

BTW, the government agencies/powers that be desperately need to stop generalizing ENSO events because as we have seen this summer, it not only wreaks havoc with winter forecasts, but tropical predictions, as well. You can not expect to make skillful seasonal forecasts without accurately portraying the nuances of ENSO. Modoki ENSO events have drastically different outcomes from the canonical counterparts during the cold and warm seasons....this relatively meager tropical season was predictable.

Yes, I agree with both of these points.....I could totally a see a meekly positive NAO and a more basin wide la nina ultimately. A basin wide la nina is definitely more of a -NAO risk....I will hash all of this out next week in a blogpost.

Epstein must be climaxing several times daily during this. @Growingwisdom in his pants

I guess Scooter didn't know lol

Its only one piece to the puzzle....you guys will have a good winter shortly.

Its not going to become east based, but I think there is still a chance that la nina grows more basin wide....there is a lot of warmer subsurface anomalies west, and cooler anomalies east and at some point those anomalies are going to surface as part of the incipient stages of an ensuing modoki el nino.

While my postulated rising solar/+NAO correlation is largely theoretical and admittedly dubious, the moral of the story is that the combination of rising solar and modoki la nina doesn't scream "-NAO" to me.

...And guess which are the only two modoki la nina seasons on this list? They are emboldened.

Good question and TBH I'm not sure, but my stance on the solar stuff if that its so cutting-edge and such frontier science that your guesstimate is as good as mine. However, what I do feel more confident in is that Modoki la nina are positively correlated to both flatter Aleutian ridge and +NAO. There are 8 modoki la nina events of various intensities in my composite of all seasons dating back to 1950, and of those 8 seasons, 2000-2001 is the only one that averaged a DM -NAO in the mean...and it took a supernova SSW and resultant month of March to accomplish said feat. In addition to 2000-2001, 2008-2009 is another viable and potentially favorable type of outcome, which also featured a DM +NAO in the mean....so that isn't a death knell for us like it is further south.

This is almost analogous to the correlation between storminess and the teleconnections, whereas it isn't so much the modes, but the modalities that are the correlators.

Yard work is like exercising to me....I hate knowing that I need to do it, but enjoy during and after.

And if you look at 2000-2001, the middle portion of that season was not blocky, which is in alignment with my early thoughts with respect to this season...so IOW, consider a modified version of 2000-2001 in which the month of March isn't so extreme and what are you left with? A slight DM +NAO in the mean, which is essentially what 2002-2003 was.

Exactly my thoughts. Agree RE blockiness, but it doesn't necessarily have to be this year...we could also still see some blockiness, while averaging a +DM NAO.

In my opinion the trend of the solar cycle plays a significant role, and its ascending pretty quickly with regular activity.... coupled with a modoki la nina, which teleconnect to +NAO. Now, if la nina becomes more basin wide, them maybe I would soften my stance a bit. 2000-2001 is a decent analog and I am entertaining the notion of a solid ending, but we would need to see a major SSW manifest properly in order for a - NAO season to become more viable. I would not be shocked to see the AO average slightly negative and oppose the NAO a bit....kind of like what I suspect we may see in the Pacific in relation to the PDO/PNA. I will get into all of this in more detail this fall.

Let it die...less yard work.

Triggered over missing the rain? I really don't care-

Yea, I feel like +NAO is a given, but could be some more favorable stretches early and late.

I'm actually not that concerned about the negative PDO....my hunch is that we actually average a slightly positive PNA. The larger concern will be the tendency for a fairly flat Aleutian ridge if la nina remains modoki through the fall and into the winter, which is not a given.

Two points: 1) Do we really need to ferret out tweets at this point to re enforce the notion of a third consecutive la nina this winter? No one is doubting that at this stage... 2) Be careful what you wish for because if you look at the structure of the subsurface right now, a strong easterly wind burst near the dateline is only going to serve to erode the modoki nature of this la nina.

Even though its mostly a whiff, its still nice to see a nor' easter develop this early in the season.

That solution verbatim is NBD.

Overall unfavorable, but that doesn't mean that there can't be some favorable stretches....early and late is the most likely timeframe for any such period IMO.

The NAO will average positive, but that doesn't mean we will never see neg NAO...best shots are early and late IMO. PNA may be decent, too, which could save us.

Strong and east based is small sample, but good....2010-2011 and 1956-1957.

Lol Thanks