40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Exactly how I feel...I literally wrote that in my seasonal write up for December.
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Somewhat stronger? Maybe.....but the odds of the month working out as poorly as last December with some semblance of high latitude blocking are fairly remote. Don't forget...it wasn't just the record RNA, but it was the fact that its flex was perfectly timed with the flax of the neg NAO, so which created that God awful shredder of a gradient. The NAO could also trend stronger, or better positioned, too.
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I don't think the majority of posters truly appreciate the magnitude of that RNA last December.
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Saying that this December looks like a copy of December 2021 is one of the dumbest things I have ever heard on this forum....stick to fondling your @snowman21 blow-up doll. Wow...this is a run-of-the-mill RNA regime as currently modeled, which coupled with blocking in the polar domain has been historically one of the most fruit patterns for the northeast in terms of snowfall. Comparing this to last December is akin to (insert moron 5PPD) comparing every snowstorm to the blizzard of '78, or '96.
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I love the progression of the pattern relative to climo.
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Sounds about right.
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I mean on average pattern per pattern it wouldn't be as cold.
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Yes, it is. I'm not saying it would be as cold, obviously with climate change, but negative NAO/PNA regime was a staple of the 60s winters.
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It's a 1960s look.
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Agree.
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I love that look....very active.
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2019.
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Any pigs this season will be drive bys.....its not going to be the type of season where they plant on your face and squeal for two months.
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It will be nice to get this piece of crap system this weekend out of the way, regardless of what happens. This was one of those systems that I despise because it was always clear as day to me that nothing interesting in terms of winter weather for SNE was going to materialize, but you still have to hear about the damn thing for the better part of a week+. Bonafide threat season begins after that thing passes, though early December will be an uphill battle for SNE.
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15.3 for the low.
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Non-event for SNE.
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Doubt the NARCAN would have that.
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Not interested. I agree it's a NNE threat.
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Yea, let's root for snow with a primary near James Bay.
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No. I had a board. I took pics of a garbage can topped with snow.
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Yikes. I came out of my two-week outlook cacoon and went straight on vaca, so I missed that.
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Wasn't it a no-brainer that it was going to turn colder in November? I don't get the victory laps and kudos. Who doubted that?
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I am a fan of the 6 hourly swipe...but I also have no issue distinguishing between total snowfall and max/current depth.
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I am so sick of the inconsistency with respect to snowfall measuring.....I had my 31.5" jack tossed in March 2018 after employing the same, exact technique and they took depth measurements, instead. But when it comes to a lake effect circle jerk, they all derobe to the big 22.7" discrepancy between max depth and 6 hourly swipes. I had a 6.5" gap and it was tossed. What a joke.
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Some Thoughts On The Next Couple Months
40/70 Benchmark replied to OHweather's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Thanks for chiming in, Matt...love your stuff. The neg IOD and la nina should both relinquish their grip relatively early, per my research, since this is a stagnant la nina that has carried over from last year. They have more staying power when the atmospheric dynamics that foster the development of the ENSO-IOD development and coupling are still maturing, as opposed to largely an atmospheric imprint of last year's state.
