"Well, in this new, warmer climate, guidance has consistently underestimated the southeast ridge, time of the MJO spent in (insert undesirable phase) and (insert undesired weather)".
The peak of the impact on the NAO is 2-4 years post max, so its entitely conceivable we get a decent bout or two of blocking this year. That said, it will average positive, of course.
Very reasonable look IMO. I don't expect a KU pipeline to become eestablished, but nor do I think it will be a prhibitvely warm bloodbath. Could be a pretty good latitudinal gradient around SNE/CNE.