40/70 Benchmark

Right...this is what the MEI and RONI better convey. I agree the west PAC issue must be considered ...only thing that is keeping me measured. That said, I view that as more of a cap and don't expect this season to be bad.

Stop focusing on on ONI. RONI and MEI will border on moderate.

Yea, I don't buy it being that dry...just commenting on the output.

Who needs snow when the demise of society is imminent-

I'm as shocked that you chose to point that out as I'm sure everyone else is... I do foresee a gradient aspect to this season... maybe it's a bit further north than that year owed to CC....just gonna have to see. I think it's a pretty decent west Pacific analog in that it was more neutral than the majority of the past decade, albeit not outright negative like 2021-2022. I think the mid atlantic will have a better shot later in the season than earlier....just my early thoughts. I don't see this season as a KU cookbook, though we will have a window or two. With cold in SE Canada and systems trying to cut west/moisture trying to overrun antecedent cold, you will probably want latitude.

Consensus has a similar look with respec to tropical convection. https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_spatial_mm_ssto_3m?area=area08&base_time=202509010000&type=ensm&valid_time=202512010000

@dendrite@dryslot

Same page as raindance....when I see phase 7 December composite all I can think of is Dec 2007, although that month didn't spend much time in that phase in a literal sense.

Well, that is a flip from 86F...not saying it's gonna snow lol

That was all I commented on...I don't think the series is over or anything.

I think my sentiment was deserved...you have ripped Chapman from the day they signed him...going on about how he always melts when the lights get bright. Sorry, dude...he shoved it right up your tailpipe when the lights were brightest, and it should go without mention?? BS-

Some signs of a flip in the latter third or so of this month.

I don't think so.

Didn't have to wait that long lol He tore me a new one via text just after the game last night

CFS is MUCH warmer.....my stuff is seemingly a compromise of the two.

Even more pronounced for JFM:

DJF hardly below normal from around the N shore of Boston points NE into Maine screams late-blooming Miller B, to me.

JFM looks around normal precip for most of SNE....precip is probably the most inaccurate aspect of seasonals, anyway, which remain relatively inaccurate in general. Seems like there maybe some late developing Miller B events that are going to pop in the N stream. Latest run has picked up on this more, as it's not as dry in New England.

Does anyone know when the MEI will update? They said it was going to be late in June and just haven't updated since June 10...odd. I have just ingnored it this season, which sucks beause I usually like to use it.

I wish CPC would do this...CC has exacerbated this disconnect to the point where I make my own intensity composites now and don't even use CPC.

2024-2025 peaked with a RONI of -1.12 and an MEI of 1..borderline moderate. It was certainly a La Nina, again, unless you are tethering yourself to the ONI, which is ill-advised. It's important to be wholistic considering CC.

No...it wasn't. You keep asserting this, but check your facts. The MEI briefly touched 0.5 for one bi-monthlyh period and the RONI peaked at .24 in OND.

Not really debatable that it's a weak La Nina unless you soley rely on the archaic ONI. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

KLWM It's a combo meal of bad patterns and bad luck...Chris is right that the PAC het has caused supression and cutters....but we have also had some bad breaks on a regional scale, and for me locally...we have had a couple of seasons that performed well regionally, but my specific area was still boned.