40/70 Benchmark

Region 4 has the second warmest anomaly that it ever had in recorded history...if that doesn't qualify as basin-wide, then I'm not sure what does. Basin-wide events have a high variance due to the SST warmth not being biased heavily in either direction, but the fact is that the warmth out west is titling the forcing in that direction.

Webb literally wrote a thesis on Twitter about why the MEI doesn't matter...talk about being triggered lol

That is the one I use for pre 1979.

Life is one big correlation table...from solving world hunger, to alleviating acute personality disorders and getting laid....check the table-

The disconnect between the RONI and MEI is nothing new... check out the 2002-2003 el Nino....I think 1.55 peak RONI and 0.7 MEI.

I noted that.... 1.05 is not alarming...about where I expected the MEI to go.

I was just about to post that strong is off of the table....I had the ceiling at 1.6, but that will be rewritten.

All joking aside, this doesn't change anything IMO...its not going to be a frigid winter.

Snowman needs a Webb-Roundy coctail fix like a junkie needs dope right about now...dude must have the shakes

Simple climo, too....we don't get super el Nino again so soon after 2015.

Just you wait until that next downwelling-Kelvin WWB comes along.....we only look at MEI during Modoki.

Man, look at the death star over AK in November....

I just meant in weather circles...no need to talk me off of the ledge lol

Obviously he couldn't care less...I'm a nobody.....but it is what it is-

He is a weenie lol

Late Friday or Saturday.

I try not to do this, but that Webber ass is getting a shutout in my write up.....can't help myself.

I expect a mild season in the mean because the colder turn is not going to entirely negate the warmer start.

You are missing my point. I am not saying its going to get very cold., but rather we are due for some seasons that are colder east than west. But again, I agree with you that the -PDO makes it unlikely to reverse this year.

That also tells me is due to flip sooner than later, just like it did after the 2000-2008 eastern bonanza...not necessarily this year because I don't think that will be the case.

And if the ONI isn't 2.0 by then, lets kick the evah livn' shit out of that can.

Here is an excerpt from my outlook: Climatologically speaking, an upper echelon el Nino event was always very dubious from even a very extended lead time due to the noted periodicity at which events of this magnitude occur. Since 1972, there have been four el Nino events with an ONI, MEI and RONI all exceeding 2.0, meaning that these four events were all extraordinarily intense relative to the surrounding Pacific basin within a warming climate. And thus extremely well coupled with the atmosphere. The warm ENSO events of 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 featured an average periodicity rate of 14.3 years with the lowest return rate being 10 years between the 1972 and 1982 events. Regardless of what guidance implied, another event of this magnitude was never particularly likely a mere 8 years on the heels of the great el Nino of 2015. As the spring, summer and now fall have progressed, it became clearer that this logic was sound, as the el Nino never significantly distinguished itself from a Pacific basin that featured highly anomalous warmth throughout and hence has yet to strongly couple with the atmosphere.

I am hoping to publish late Friday with the family gone and able to stay in the office late.

The index values are great as a general guide, but at the end of the say you need to analyze the pattern for specificity and precision.

You can also get a -PNA with a +PNA if its biased to the west, like last January.