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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be shocked if this intense round of blocking is a one-off....there should be more down the road. Maybe not this extreme, but I don't think its +++NAO the rest of the way, either.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    If January does suck, I think I will be pretty resigned to the first stretch of five consecutive well below normal snowfall seasons for MBY on record dating back to at least 1956. The regression crap is def. put to bed for me....this is the 1980s. That would be 7/8 below normal seasons dating back to 2015.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I am guilty of this month is being too reactionary to the medium range guidance at like days 6-10. I wish I had remained more reserved in the tone of some of my updates.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the month isn't over yet and long season ahead. I only posted that because this visceral reaction that all of the forecasts were crap just because it didn't snow isn't always fair. If I blow January, then I'll be the first to admit it. Hopefully something shows up soon.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    This threat was always it in my eyes....there was never a heck of a lot more to talk about, so now that this is over with, we are meteorologically moribund into early January. Sucks and blows.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    As did the month of December.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, ok...gotcha.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    +.5" early on Saturday 1.5" on the season.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    @MaestrobjwaYou do realize that I am not claiming that next year will be a 2009-2010 redux, correct? I merely mentioned it because it was a strong el Nino that wasn't obscene.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    BS....I know you are butt-hurt like we all are, but this thread is just as humming leading up to a blizzard in March as it is in January.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Strongly advise against punting first half of January...yes, there should be a big, bad, ugly thaw after the first week, but I think shit is going to go down during the rest of the month.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't expect ORH to be getting totally shafted. Agree.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Did BOX release a final map of totals?
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    If ORH gets shut out, then yes...worse than I had thought. Still a couple of weeks left.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    He had a +NAO December, so there is that...glad that I didn't copy him, like he accused me of. Otherwise, he has had the right idea....we were both RNA December.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can't get that specific...no one does. That is fluky shit ORH through my area has been porked. But I have generally had the pattern right, which is all I hope for.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course there is more to it....the crap like the ridge being displaced to the west is luck. I didn't predict that. But its not luck that the cold has been out west and the interior has done better.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    That the coast has been totally shut out, yes. At the end of the day, there is always some hedging and glorified guess work at play with issuing these outlooks. Even if you get the pattern right, there is always some educated guess work about how it all plays out.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Because RNA increases the changes of an interior pattern, even though the upside is high if things break right. This month they haven't.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    On average, one of our better patterns is -NAO/RNA, but I think the PV sliding out west as porked us. I don't think that that would have happened in a positive PNA month...or less likely, anyway.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are still only like 55% through the month, too...don't forget that. We have just seen how quickly things change.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I mean is that this has been RNA, but not record levels like last year...I expected some front end/SWFE type stuff despite the RNA, but it hasn't worked out for the coast and some spots just inland. But a PNA would have allowed the cold to dump further east. Is that really that complicated?
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    If January is miserable, then I'll be the first to burn my outlook....but so far, I think its going as planned. And even is January fails, I don't think this season ends quietly...
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I disagree. This month would have been better with PNA.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The ridge being too far west was a nuance that nobody could have predicted. Agreed. But the cold constantly loading west is not...that is what I called for due to RNA.
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