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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the January as I had portrayed was a miss. The blocking never redeveloped. However, we could still get lucky in Feb with a better source region as a segue into a nice March. I hinted at such an outcome in my last blog, even though it headlined a "Mild February".
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    All I need is enough to get back to climo for verification and I saw a clown Euro weekly map yesterday that did just that...30-40" region wide over 42 days.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I need it bc January was a bad miss.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I already mentioned that in a blog last fall....this is likely to evolve into a modoki el nino next year.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's just increases the chances of a favorable outcome...but as we saw in December, there are no guarantees.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, and potential insurance against a strong el nino next year.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    No.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't really care, at this point. It's too late for any changes to matter, anyway.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    It certainly will be in the DM mean...there are also extratropical influences independent of ENSO. "Its not black and white" was a very accurate statement.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's all subjective...impact with respect to ENSO and temps. All we know is that the globe is warming and to a degree said warming is likely anthropogenic in nature.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nope..none, which is my point.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting that we have a marginally moderate la nina so exotically well coupled with the atmosphere, despite CC seemingly rendering ENSO all but irrelevant. I feel like in a day and age where every warm anomaly gets attributed, it's only fair to consider that point, as well.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Down to 13.3.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't look at the EURO lol
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, decent consistency from 18z...nice dump. May need to blog if it's there late in the weekend.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    You know winter blows when there is 3 pages of Caribou snowmobile track talk.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not going to be like '82 or '97...we just had one of those 7 years ago.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still feel like a favorable el nino will evolve.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...typo
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was kind of a warmer version of January 2021 in that sense...no excessive warmth, but just incessantly above average.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tough to wrap your mind around just how insane the positive temp anomaly was for January.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance was far and away the best outlook IMO...but even he got lucky on December...had a +AO/NAO.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right. Technically, I had a mild winter forecasted...but not this. January was nuts.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    IMO, getting the seasonal teleconnections correct is akin to "showing the work" in math class...you get that wrong while seemingly capturing the overall tenor of the winter, then you were at least as lucky as skilled...and yes, I hold myself to that standard.
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