40/70 Benchmark

2014 is the best analog, but I didn't include it because it was El Nino.

Maybe I'm nuts, but perhaps the staff would know if you called??

I actually prefer the opposite.

This composite below is strongly QBO and solar derived.

I think February could be pretty balmy before some potential late season stratospheric shennanigans-

Notice the two steps forward, one step back type of progression towards the shift back to a warmer Pacific phase that occurred in both 2000 and 2012, where as 2000-2001 flipped strongly positive before 2001-2002 was negative again....2012-2013 was strongly positive and 2013-2014 flipped negative again. This is what I expect to see moving forward....next year will be negative again, but change is afoot IMHO. Its a several year process that will take the latter portion of this decade, but after that we should also be approaching solar min.

This is also added support for poleward Aleutian ridging....looks alot like more early polar composite.

Interesting....since 1950, I have 1955-1956, 1971-1972, 1974-1975, 1984-1985, 1999-2000, 2008-2009, 2011-2012, 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 as second year La Nina evemts. The only two DM periods that did not average -PNA out of that data set are 1999-2000 and 2011-2012, which preceeded swings back towards Pacific warm phase from cold phase. 2021-2022 actually had an extensive mid season +PNA mismatch period, but the seaonal mean was biased negative due to the the very stout RNA that ruined December....I could see a similar outocme this season with perhaps not as promounced -PNA, as that was record setting.

Right...its not a perfect 1 correlation because nothing is...doesn't mean there isn't predictive value to be gleaned.

Incidentally, this is in perfect alignments with my thoughts. Thanks.

Agree....

As much as I hate heat, he is the last dude I want telling me its going to cool down. Kev and Scooter rejoice.

Moregarbage...that guy is awful.

Steined here. Just .11"

2017-2018 was my last good winter.

I would take the opposite of the last 7 years.

Perhaps the most shocking fact of all is that we have continued to avoid the inevitable Long Island Express that is long overdue-

I don't expect that to change.....goes with the Pacific cold phase tendency. -AO/NAO/PNA early and late season, with +AO/NAO/PNA sandwiched in the middle.....+AO/NAO definitely tipping the seasonal mean in that direction, but I think the -PNA portion will also win out in the mean. Just not as extreme as 2022-2023.

Yes and yes.

Yea, winter is always going to warm faster than summer because there is so much more mosture in the air during the warm season.

+NAO/+PNA January, I bet....best shot at blocking being December/ latter Feb and March.

Where I agree with Chris is I do think that this latest round of global warming has augmented and probably protracted this pattern...I do think there is some level of feedback there.

Chris, that 2022-2023 season was an exception in that it was def. more -PNA that year....it was about as extreme as it gets and it definitely foiled what would have otherwise been a damn good December and March...at least at my latitude. Give me that season again with a bit less -PNA and I would be happy.

I agree, too....but I would still bet on more snowfall than last year for my locale because I don't think it will be as dry.