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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Works for verification purposes.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly....agree. DT was breaking my balls on Facebook......dude always makes excuses when he busts..."The data changed"....love that one. Like...WTF is a forecast for if you can anticipate late trends and know when the data is BS?? He always used that excuse.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    True...I couldn't pull it off this storm I had to average out the drifts.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I deal with fatigue and time constraints, too...I make excuses to talk my self out of needed to redo anything, which I normally don't do, anyway...I'm not a pro, so I don't other to correct Final products...but the writing was on the wall...notice I went to sleep at 330. NEVER would have happened had I been excited about what I Saw. If you live in my area and see my sleep during an event, you're fucked.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have no issue with it....RAD and pics align. in fact, if I were there, I would have measured 50" because I would not have slept and cleared every 6 hours.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am working on a post mortem now and will illustrate all of this. See, this is me now, as opposed to 10 years ago....now I'm able to bare the busted forecast trauma to salvage growth.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks to me like CT managed MECS numbers due to the decaying H7 fronto that hit Delaware, but that was cooked by the time it got to me, as all fronto aligned over SE MA and RI. I know I posted a couple of times about being afraid that fronto hole that was originally over CT would end up over me with the combo of slightly delayed development and the se tic. Exactly what happened...CT got the 15-25" zone that I had for my area.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Are you speaking of 700mb RH? Oh, surface...I see it. I always say shitty forecasts are the best learning tools...This is a perfect example of it. Class is session...I'll do better next blizzard.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    10"
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not what I said....however, SSTAs are less impactful when ENSO is weak...take a look at 1976...east based event, yet crushed NE. Even with Nina....2000 was modoki, yet crushed NE. (similar solar/QBO to this year). When ENSO is weak, other factors play more of a role, like solar cycle, etc. 18-19 was low solar-descending solar/west QBO, which is a shitty combo. 2019 was neutral.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. Big March incoming...
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would never have guessed that was under "lower"dynamics...
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks, I usually use F5 site for fronto, but only has EURO.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks so much. Where is that fronto option of TT? Having trouble finding it...does it require subscription?
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    -EPO (+TNH) was a byproduct of high solar and exceptionally strong easterly QBO....like this year. The fact that it was a modoki El Niño helps, yes.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Take a look at weak El Niños versus stronger back throughout history.......2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, 1968...all weak and NE winters. 2015, 2009, 2002, 1986, 1982, 1957...those stronger ones get the mid Atlantic.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are 100% WRONG....weak El Niño is best in SNE because the STJ is less pronounced....that is the reason I nailed that winter in my first outlook. I looked at ENSO as said with would be a SNE winter.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I give this winter a solid "B" so far.....can't give it an "A" being at normal snowfall after getting boned on the '78 redux. Let's see what can. happen during the final stanza to move this up...
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't used 2014-2015 as a seasonal analog because of ENSO, but it was in my +TNH composite for latter January into February.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was off by 6 days on the Blizzard, too....my largest KU window began March 1.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I should also add that the east doesn't even necessarily need a reversal because I this that the first half of March will be wintry, anyway.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Early March was my last window.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    This, combined with the 50-75 shift south, is what killed me. This is a lesson that I'll take from this.....that band set up over ORH CO into S NH just like I thought it would, but it just wasn't very impressive. I think jan 2022 was like that , too. Could you provide a graphic to illustrate this? Thanks in advance. I need to get better at band/fronto diagnostics. I am too weak with that.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Mid March is okay where I live...but too late for most..late March is even pushing it for me. May just be more like. final warming, similar to last year....too bad my the period earlier this month didn't end up working out like I had though. Our best bet would be getting this to be a "top-down" type of event, in which effects are virtually immediate.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
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