40/70 Benchmark

Watch the magic act continue to unfold...the incredible disappearing RNA...vanishing right before our eyes faster than a medium range SNE snow-threat.

@qg_omegaHave you been keeping track of this? Flip back to RNA started out at 1/15 as of the 1/2run, now it's 1/20 and sliding....

I buy it...I know someone like @qg_omegawill beat me over the head for that, but this season is going to eventually produce....I don't think I'm going to challenge my futility record.

I just have a few patches left...snowbanks at the sides of the driveway are still there.

You had your Youtube serenade out just 2 days ago

I was debating DT online RE this....he was arguing that the NAO was more important, and I was saying it was the PNA....this is why.

We should see a nice stretch later on once the MJO hits 7, and especially if it actually hits 8. I hope you were speaking only in terms of intensity, otherwise 2016-2017 is an atrocious analog...that event was Modoki, this is east-based.

Yea, that threat never had a chance...DOA.

AGAIN...Exactly what I said to expect for this period.....I kept reiterating +PNA January even though long range guidance was trying to show a never ending RNA....also said that PV would get strong as a result of the +TNH and strat reflection, but this is priming the atmosphere to rape the PV next month. IGNORE GUIDANCE. Maybe I will be wrong about the Feb SSW...I don't mean to sound arrogant. All I am saying is that it's too early to know despite long range guidance.

PV forecasts this season have been positively abysmal, which is why I'm not yet concerned about my call for a Feb SSW...TBH, I'd prefer that a strong PV be modeled for February at this point.....I have said all along that it won't show up in guidance until the end of January at the earliest. Remember back in December I wasn't worried about the long range saying that the PV would remain weak, so it goes both ways....I'm not just being a weenie.

I wouldn't give up hope on a nice stretch, but odds of hitting climo snowfall this season in my area are on life support...unimaginable 8th consecutive season.

Ray knew-

No, the first wave is toast....the follow up may try to come back. I'll be surprised if we get nothing from that, too.

Even that thread...it's a virtual wake at this point.

I'll bet the mid Atlantic scores again

I love how Kev Xs my post out when I've been the one telling him all week that this threat period sucked.

It's going to reverse course violently at some point, dude....even factoring in CC...John would even admit that. I still say this season is going to eventually have a run.

Hey, at least I'm ahead of last year's pace...8.75 vs 5.5" . I had 27" beyond this point last season and expect more this season, so there's that...

Post volume has dropped faster than any flakes this season

MJO is amplifying in phase 6...also part of the reason why I have always hated this threat period. How many big storms do we get in phase 6? Better shot once it hits 7 after the 20th.

Yea, GEFS blow, too.

That 00z GFS solution is my 2nd most preferred outcome, with the most preferred being a major storm, of course.

What it comes down to is we just need to vanquish this persistent cool ENSO paradigm once and for all...I know some don't feel it's is a factor, but I don't mean ENSO itself....I mean the entire Pacific arena has been in cool ENSO mode for about 8 years. This is why the MJO always seems to skip over phase 8....even the past 1.5 seasons that have been decently cold, where are the big east coast storms?? The tropical forcing has still constantly deconstructively interfered with major east coast cyclogenesis for the most part. That strong El Niño a couple of years back was still left to compete with that residual cool ENSO forcing, which is why it sucked so badly. Even when MJO is in the COD...all that means is defaults to the baseline forcing...which is...take a guess. This is why I don't get people like DT who blow loads over La Niña weakening...it's like having your entire house burning to the ground and breathing a sigh of relief after dumping a bucket of water over the front stairs. His understanding of ENSO is so piss-poor...very reductive in nature.

Difference is that ended well....

Not this run...mother nature manages to queef at juuuuust the right angle to smother any modicum of dynamics for the whole weekend.