40/70 Benchmark

It still got the pattern wrong, though...which is why it was too warm. I wouldn't consider it a win for those that forecasted a big winter for the mid atlantic during the 2015-2016 season, despite the fact that snowfall worked out. I'm not arguing your point about storm track, but the EURO seasonal was still a tremendously flawed forecast. I am willing to bet if we had less of a neg NAO last season, the northeast would have done better via more overrunning and SWFE snowfall, kind of like what we saw in February. I understand your point about increased reliance on Benchmark tracks in the NE, but some of that is due to SE Canada being warmer relative to other areas independent of CC. We saw that shift some last year and if se Canada is appreciably cold again, which I suspect that it will be, I would bet on more snowfall.

Did NOT get the pattern right, though.....suprised someone as meticulous as you would omit that.

Yes, this is what I have always said about climate models...they are biased towards stock ENSO.

I thought mine from last year was okay...not great, but not bad.

That guy and DirectWeather are at the top of my $hit list for ignoring.

By then heat is manageable....like mid March arctic bouts. Sun is modifying air masses at this point.

No, but better.

I agree. I also am keene on the idea of a mid winter SSW, for whatever that is worth...I know those are a mixed bag.

"Wake me up.....when September ends"....

Well, that's the thing....you go on so many snarky diatribes regarding how a viable winter outlook can be produced by copy and pasting the past 10 or so years, that it's tough to gauge where exactly you stand. Seriously, I would need to see a bit more than just this year.....my stance is if we make into the next decade in this same winter rut, then it's time to operate under the assumption that we've reached a tipping point, so to speak.

Probably similar.

Yea, normally September is so exciting....

6.32" JJA total here.

I agree for the most part, but I still think we could pull off a sub 1981-2010 climo. I think it would be a low return type of anomaly, but I don't think that ship has sailed quite yet. I may be wrong-

I don't think you are going to get pushback from anyone about how exceedingly difficult it is to get any season to finish below the longer term 1895-2000 climo...this is why I never use that climo base. It's not because I'm in denial about anything or trying to dissociate, but it's for the same reason that I don't begin every outlook by rehashing that the sky is blue.

Not too worried about that. Largest bias of climate models is to over-bake ENSO into the forecast, which should be weak. While I expect a +NAO, it's not going to be wall-to-wall IMO.

How were you relative to normal snowfall last year?

In a perfect world, yes, but the PDO is more of a longer term oscillation that doesn't always correlate to our sensible weather.

May be tied to your October MJO rule...or a coincidence.

Well, when you average 20", scoring 12" the first month kind of seals the deal.

It may just be an issue for more research needing to be done on the topic...it's bad enough that ur sample size is so low, but I feel like having only one piece of research on top exacerbates that issue.

100% agree here...been my stance all along.

Yea, I never doubt any of your research......just saying, not what I would have guessed.

2014-2015 was even more anomalous in that respect.