40/70 Benchmark

Verification of the great Blizzard of 2026 revealed that the forecast was not as highly skilled was I would have liked, to say the least. I bought into historic snowfall totals too far to the northwest, despite some glaring red flags that ended up biting me harder than my 1 year old daughter. Most notably, the track kept shifting south after I pulled the trigger early Sunday. That said, what you will not hear from an amateur like myself, is the garbage excuse of "changing data", "missing data" or "bad data" that you get from far too many "professional social mediaologists"....this is the equivalent of all of the injuries you hear about after the team gets it's face ripped off in the Super Bowl. That said, I was able to put that behind me to enjoy the spoils of a truly great winter's day outside with the kids. Final Grade: D+ PS: Winter is not over, but more about that after I resume day-to-day life. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/forecast-verification-for-blizzard-of.html

Thanks, you have the link?

Anyone have the latest record bulletin for Providence snowfall?

Works for verification purposes.

Exactly....agree. DT was breaking my balls on Facebook......dude always makes excuses when he busts..."The data changed"....love that one. Like...WTF is a forecast for if you can anticipate late trends and know when the data is BS?? He always used that excuse.

True...I couldn't pull it off this storm I had to average out the drifts.

I deal with fatigue and time constraints, too...I make excuses to talk my self out of needed to redo anything, which I normally don't do, anyway...I'm not a pro, so I don't other to correct Final products...but the writing was on the wall...notice I went to sleep at 330. NEVER would have happened had I been excited about what I Saw. If you live in my area and see my sleep during an event, you're fucked.

Yea, I have no issue with it....RAD and pics align. in fact, if I were there, I would have measured 50" because I would not have slept and cleared every 6 hours.

I am working on a post mortem now and will illustrate all of this. See, this is me now, as opposed to 10 years ago....now I'm able to bare the busted forecast trauma to salvage growth.

Looks to me like CT managed MECS numbers due to the decaying H7 fronto that hit Delaware, but that was cooked by the time it got to me, as all fronto aligned over SE MA and RI. I know I posted a couple of times about being afraid that fronto hole that was originally over CT would end up over me with the combo of slightly delayed development and the se tic. Exactly what happened...CT got the 15-25" zone that I had for my area.

Are you speaking of 700mb RH? Oh, surface...I see it. I always say shitty forecasts are the best learning tools...This is a perfect example of it. Class is session...I'll do better next blizzard.

10"

Not what I said....however, SSTAs are less impactful when ENSO is weak...take a look at 1976...east based event, yet crushed NE. Even with Nina....2000 was modoki, yet crushed NE. (similar solar/QBO to this year). When ENSO is weak, other factors play more of a role, like solar cycle, etc. 18-19 was low solar-descending solar/west QBO, which is a shitty combo. 2019 was neutral.

Agree. Big March incoming...

I would never have guessed that was under "lower"dynamics...

Thanks, I usually use F5 site for fronto, but only has EURO.

Thanks so much. Where is that fronto option of TT? Having trouble finding it...does it require subscription?

-EPO (+TNH) was a byproduct of high solar and exceptionally strong easterly QBO....like this year. The fact that it was a modoki El Niño helps, yes.

Take a look at weak El Niños versus stronger back throughout history.......2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, 1968...all weak and NE winters. 2015, 2009, 2002, 1986, 1982, 1957...those stronger ones get the mid Atlantic.

You are 100% WRONG....weak El Niño is best in SNE because the STJ is less pronounced....that is the reason I nailed that winter in my first outlook. I looked at ENSO as said with would be a SNE winter.

I give this winter a solid "B" so far.....can't give it an "A" being at normal snowfall after getting boned on the '78 redux. Let's see what can. happen during the final stanza to move this up...

I didn't used 2014-2015 as a seasonal analog because of ENSO, but it was in my +TNH composite for latter January into February.

I was off by 6 days on the Blizzard, too....my largest KU window began March 1.

I should also add that the east doesn't even necessarily need a reversal because I this that the first half of March will be wintry, anyway.

Early March was my last window.