40/70 Benchmark

Jesus, this is utterly exhausting.

Significant Snows Possible Latter Half Of Holiday Weekend Eastern Mass Weather asserted late last week that a significant storm was highly unlikely to materialize on Friday into Saturday. However, there was a distinct possibility that the follow up wave could produce major winter storm this coming Sunday Monday, due in large part to subtle changes in the orientation of the western CONUS ridge. There is now a growing signal amongst guidance that such a storm may indeed materialize. Synoptic Overview There are no changes with respect to the prevailing thought process surrounding storm number one. The energy will simply fail to coalesce soon enough for the region to be impacted by a major winter storm due to the follow up disturbance triggering a reconfiguration of the western CONUS ridge into a more positive (southwest to northeast) orientation. This subtle change promotes a slower down stream evolution, which results in the energy phasing over the Canadien Maritimes instead of just off of the east coast. While this does not preclude snowfall, per se, it doe relegate the region to a lighter snowfall that may accumulate an inch or two over the higher terrain of the interior. These type of wave spacing issues, as referenced last week, were a common occurrence that consistently plagued storm potential last season. Thereafter, the amplification of the incoming trough over the midwest will allow for a reconfiguration of the ridge back to a more positive orientation. This will afford the system more of an opportunity to amplify fast enough to have a greater impact on the region by Sunday night into Monday. However, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning whether or not it will amplify fast enough to provide significant snows for all of the region, or whether the primary impact will be more confined to eastern zones. Anticipate a First Call on Friday. Threat Assessment ...slowly backs away.....seeks out nearest hedges to immerse self.

Our weather smacks of the mid 1980s, too.

I meant more than you think would be frustrated with a couple of inches. lol

Tossed as a blizzard and a whiff.

I'd kill for that...been several years. Let me know when one shows up.

I think more than you'd think, at this point...

There isn't destructive interference if it's through Michigan, though...has to be the MJO.

Funny how the EURO is the most skilled model out there when it's solution sucks for SNE...remember that December 2 system? It was snow for all, then inexorably marched northward right up until go-time and it mixed up to MHT. Of course it nailed the vort impotence here at hr 120. Unreal.

Yea, I don't doubt it hits 8 necessarily...but like we saw in December, guidance may, at least initially, be overzealous with residence and/or amplification.

We need to sneak a biggie or 3 in before the draft.

All kidding aside, I am shocked by the percentage of highly trained professional meteorologists that can't wrap their mind around the fact that you don't instantly eradicate a decade of cool ENSO AAM the moment the weekly anomaly in region 3.4 drops below the -0.5C threshold on (insert dataset of choice). It's utterly disheartening.

Well in that case, 30 days in phase 8 and shots for all.

Yea, I was assuming baseline.

Oh, boy Miami rule porking.

Say it with my guys and one outlier girl..."I'm a good person and I deserve snow.....but my life with or without snow has value". Breathe......and....repeat......

Give it until 00z Saturday, guys.

This is my stance, but the collective psyche of the board right now is just so fragile that it will fall on deaf ears and get ample pushback.

Good test for the "La Nina is fading fast" crowd....I call BS on it.....but IF that has any credence what so ever, we won't get boned out of phase 8 residence and amplitude once again. I think we will....watch the models adjust.

Hang in there...we aren't going to want for opportunity.

Now the +TNH that results from the reflection event should act as a precursor to the February SSW, just as the Pacific Trough Regime that is just wrapping up was the precursor to the upcoming +TNH interval born of stratospheric reflection.

Now the +TNH that results from the reflection event should act as a precursor to the February SSW, just as the Pacific Trough Regime that is just wrapping up was the precursor to the upcoming +TNH interval born of stratospheric reflection.

Now the +TNH that results from the reflection event should act as a precursor to the February SSW, just as the Pacific Trough Regime that is just wrapping up was the precursor to the upcoming +TNH interval born of stratospheric reflection.