40/70 Benchmark

Jesus, nothing ever comes easy for MBY. This seems more like a December 2000 setup, than a 2007/2008.

Welcome back.

18z.

I buy it for MBY.

There is just too much data.

I would definitely lose it if I get skunked, and interior se MA has a nice event.

I am.

It wasn't a serious post.

As long as I get like 4", I'll be fine...but less than that, I'll probably have an early melt.

The reason you have this impression is because it's run more often now, which provides more opportunity for error, but it is actually more accurate in the mean.

Don't worry, it will consolidate into a blizzard in time for that fat, bald dude to do his obnoxious siren video, and collect another 5,236 followers.

Not necessarily....it depends where it's located because a strong vortex located in the vicinity of James Bay is the coldest pattern there is.

@Stormchaserchuck1I am just north of that 60, where the arrow is pointing.....60% shot at 3"+ according to the EPS.

Yes, this was never going to be more than 8" IMO.

I just gave it a quick eyeball....matched up generally speaking, I didn't compare it that specifically.

Whooooosh.

I'm just mocking Kevin's inane outbursrs.

The whole thing has gone to crap.

DT's First Call map looks like mine.

I'm not doom and gloom...I went 19-29" for you on the season. I'm just not as optimistic about December as the consensus for your area.

I would be fine with an advisory event.

Maybe I will be wrong on some aspects, which is fine...I'll learn from it....but all I ask from those who comment on my work is to accurately reference what the forecast was.

Keep thinking what? It's not subjective...I told you what my forecast was...that is objective fact.

I used December 2000 as an analog for the warming in that it would narrowly miss a reversal, but also mentioned December 1981 as an example if it were to actually reverse. I said that the MJO would staddle the border of MJO phase 8 and perhaps make it into phase 8 at a reduced amplitude, which would allow other factors to potentially modulate the pattern. And I'm not sure how in the hell you are grading the nuances of the 500mb composite for a month that has yet to begin. You are absolutely desperate for snow in Central Park, I get it.

I stopped reading your response right there. Either you didn't actually read my outlook, or you're illiterate to some extent.