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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's a DJF mean. Worked for Feb 1983, but I agree it's precarious for the coast. Here is Feb....I think we have seasonable cold here with that ridging out west.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tell me there is explosive potential this winter without telling me there is explosive potential this winter...okay-
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's going to be an appreciably negative PDO.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty much....I would push back a hair with regard to snowfall, though...1982 was just about normal.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Self-respect?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are giving yourself too much credit. I don't need you to help me formulate a valid idea of how this season is going to progress....I'm merely giving you an opportunity to at least feign an interest in contributing anything of value.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    The cooling east of Japan and warming in the GOA is driving the neutralization of the PDO:
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    :vomit:
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Leaves are already falling up here because it's been so dry.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Likely because the cold El Niño events of the late 70's freaked them out.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, just depends on the precise SST measurement and calculation are, but I wish they could centralize it. Regardless, neutral-negative now.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://satellitewx.com/ocean?p=ssta&d=2026-09-09&dom=Global&v=r,-160.000,0.000,387.600 Thanks to @BlizzardWx...my new home site.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    PDO up to -.19 today.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    How about region 4?
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely. I didn't understand that 3 years ago and misdiagnosed it as a Modoki signal.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you can hedge in the narrative....not these asinine AI-generated graphics...agree, there.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    East-based composite versus Euro forecast:
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    See how far west 2023-2024, hence the heavy MC influence.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Basin-wide forcing, despite east-based Ssts.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO hits that even harder. It's due to two things IMO....Stratosphere, but not what you think...wave one reflection, as opposed to SSW.....we aren't seeing a reversal IMHO. El Niño is also going to fade westward post-peak, so likely some periods that are more redolent of Modoki in the back half of the season.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I use it more for poleward Aleutian ridging in La Niña.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to that degree, no...that is why I am wondering if adds more Modoki influence versus MC influence relative to the east-based-super composite.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hitting my the top end of my 2.4 to 2.6 range...
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