Here is an excerpt of the analysis from my First Call post Late Monday night/early Tuesday AM that told me the EURO was full of shit.
Synoptic Layout:
A vigorous piece of energy is poised to eject out of the southwestern quadrant of the region on Friday in begin its journey northeast, as depicted below on the GFS guidance.
The European has modeled the initial intensity of the system very similarly to that of the GFS.
It is at this early juncture where the discrepancies begin, as the GEM guidance already has the system modeled significantly less intense by early Friday AM than the GFS and Euro.
Given the fact that the GEM is in outlier, and the GFS and EURO have superior initialization schemes, it is safe to assume that the GEM is likely in error in this respect. This is important to remember moving forward in the forecast.
By just after midnight on early Saturday AM, the GFS has translated the system off to the north east to a position near Lake Erie in a weakened state, as it begins veering more to the east northeast. Intuitively, this make sense when considering the wall of confluent flow that the system encounters, which is resultant from the potent negative NAO block-50/50 low dipole that is in place downstream stretching from Greenland down into the north atlantic. But pay close attention to the intensity of the west atlantic ridge (WAR) on the GFS as we begin to assess the other guidance.
The European guidance at the very same time frame during the predawn hours of Saturday, has the low in the same position as the GFS, but significantly more potent and still traveling to the northeast and into southeastern Canada, seemingly undeterred by the aforementioned north atlantic road block. This makes little sense, especially considering that the WAR on the EURO is even stronger than it is on the GFS, which in theory should cause an even greater shearing influence between it and the NAO, 50/50 dipole to its north. Additionally, over amplification is a known bias of this guidance that was just observed with respect to the current system in the medium range. The EURO likely has the correct idea with respect to the stronger WAR because the GEM has it modeled very similarly.
It is not out of the ordinary that the GFS is a weak outlier with respect to the WAR because it has a bias of being too northern stream dominant. Additionally, the MJO is currently in phase 7.
Phase 7 of the MJO favors a strong WAR, which lends additional credence to the fact the GFS is in error in this respect.
Thus the GEM is likely correct in modeling the system as succumbing to the confluent flow faster than other guidance, except for the fact that the GEM is is likely initializing the system too weak initially. This would lend credence to the GFS' middle ground position if it were not for the fact that it is likely under assessing the intensity of the WAR. However, the general track and thermal profile of the GEM can be accepted as the favored solution at this time given the fact that its under initialized intensity of the shortwave is essentially cancelled out by the under initialized strength of the WAR on the GFS depiction.
That being said, this does not mean that the GEM is not currently over zealous with its QPF forecast, which must be accounted for given the shearing influence of the confluent flow that it encounters on approach to the region.
They won't. Don't use clown maps. Look at positive snow depth change and NARCAN.
