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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think this has to be a one trick pony season.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    No.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Latest IRI suite does nothing to sway me from the 1.6-1.9 range that I honed in on early last summer. That is the final update before I issue.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't feel it's going to have much of any impact.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not well coupled. Period.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    So now Tonga is supposed to enhance blocking?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    If someone is insecure enough to think that you copied their work only to distribute it free of charge, then that is their issue. I haver never, nor have I ever attempted to make a dime from my forecasting efforts...to me, its like asking someone to pay me to exercise.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    In my experience, it doesn't prevent it. But I suggest doing what I did....write the "nuts and bolts" stuff on a separate post and reference it with a hyper link.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    We had a little bit of that last year given the blocking episodes we had....people calling for a +AO/NAO were spiking footballs like a Monday night Cowboys opponent.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doing that now....its very tedious and long....I refer to an addendum post from a few years ago to explain the fundamentals because hardly anyone reads it as it is its so long. That is where I am at.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    This place saves me so much work lol Game face on as of today....started writing, so I will be more scarce the next couple of weeks.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am the most confident I have been since 2014 in my overall conceptualization of this season....exact snowfall totals aside.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I meant to mention that with 87 and 2002-2003...funny because all 3 of those interior analogs were +PDO, which I don't expect....maybe another hint that we will have decent PNA periods, despite the PDO.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    That to me screams interior and elevation.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks to me like more of the NE screw jobs were -IOD...battle bewteen that and -PDO. Sometimes in a situation like that, I just go with my gut and a what I feel we are "due" for.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, same.,,,January 1987 and Dec/Jan 2002-2003 were like that.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    1986 is another year we were in on it.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    No coincidence that he saw fit to weenie my post above....more often than not, that type of reaction is another defense mechanism born of a reluctance to engage in any form of critical self-evaluation due to suspicion that it would yield undesirable results.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Have you ventured past these graveyards? https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt its not as strong as it looks, just as the la nina last year was stronger than it looked. You want to tell me it won't be cold or a great retention season...agreed. But I don't see anything at all that suggests a train wreck.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its only a concern if you are looking for a cold winter....it makes prolonged and severe blocking less likely, which is happening due to CC, anyway.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is the site for these historic subsurface plots?
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Overattribution can go both ways, too....you can incorporate easterly QBO without forecasting a 1995-1996 style seasonal blocking.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like we have to be wary of overattribution...ie feeling compelled to go below normal snowfall in NE due to -PDO/QBO. How I interpret that is a reduced chance of a blockbuster season, but in the absence of other strong mitigating factors, its not necessarily a death knell for NE snowfall.
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