40/70 Benchmark

Fell free to beat me senseless with a pillow full of s, but here is a composite of the updated CSU ACE forecast analog seasons...minus 2020, which isn't included on the older data set. Here is 2020: I think a 2020 like season is a reasonable hope for this season.

I think December would be decent for once...

Exactly the scenario that could save the northeast in an otherwise awful seasonal pattern...pretty much what happened on 2007-2008.

I don't think the warmth will be centered in the N plains again next season. I can buy the warmth, but don't necessari;ly agree with the orientation of it.

DT has grown so reductive and archaic in his seasonal analysis. Nevermind that it will assuredly be a La Nina by ONI standards, the cool ENSO Walker Cell will be very potent, regardless of the ONI. I'm not sure how that is lost on him. We all miss the boat sometimes....lord knows you have all seen it happened to me, but the key is to grow from it.

Euro tempts me to quit weather.

Yea, we won't know officially for a few months, I suspect.

Pretty satisfied with my call...I think being an hour too slow with landfall at Matagorda cost me that 15 MPH between forecast landfall intensity and actual. Hurricane Beryl Well Forecast Overall Landfall Locale Perfectly Predicted While Intensity Slightly Overestimated The Eastern Mass Weather Final Call for Hurricane Beryl was for a landfall in Matagorda, TX at approximately 6 AM EDT Monday as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 95 MPH. Beryl made landfall in Matagorda, TX at 5 AM EDT as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 979 MB. Obviously the forecast landfall location was perfect, as it made landfall at Matagorda one hour ahead of schedule. However, the landfall intensity left a bit to be desired, as it ended up being too aggressive at 95 MPH maximum sustained winds as opposed to the landfall intensity of 80 MPH. This is due to the fact that it simply did not have quite as much time to work the dry air out of the circulation as anticipated. Thus while the general forecast philosophy that Beryl would remain a minimal hurricane due to this environmental limitation was correct overall, the fact that it moved slightly faster than anticipated likely made the difference between the 80 and 95 MPH landfall intensity respectively since it had begun intensifying rapidly at landfall. Timing is everything with a rapidly intensifying system- Final Grade: A-

Keep in mind, I also stated in my forecast that damage may be more on par with cat 2 given the intensification through LF...quite a storm.

Damage may be more consistent with a two given it was intensifying quickly.

The intensity guidance on this was exceptional.

Nailed the track, but too strong (95 vs 80 MPH), as suspected. Meh. If this thing had another 12-24 hours....woof.

Tells you all you need to know. There will be no appreciable intensification between now and landfall.

The improving conditions is my only shot at this hitting 95MPH.

Yea...I think my call is the ceiling...agree.....gun to head now, it will be lower than that...like 80 MPH.

Interesting note from recon, they observed paint drying out in the Gulf while looking for significant signs of intensification within Beryl's inner core.

All systems need to be go with respect to not only the environment, but the structure....the importance of the latter is what many folks have underestimated. Post ERC systems often get like this with a broad core that never seems to recapture that tightly coiled vigor....the state that I refer to as "skunked". Beryl is in this state. Hopefully my 95 MPH landfall call isn't too aggressive.

This has about 12 hours left. I am just about ready to remove the possibility of cat 2 from the table. I feel like it needed to be in a better position by now.

It doesn't look great to me.

The issue is that the continued dry air entrainment, although decreasing, is still definitely present at this hour...now into the early PM. That dry air needs to be entirely washed out of the core so that convection in association with the CDO can intensify and expand......this is just when we will begin to see a more concerted pressure drop. And THEN, the circulation will need to tighten for the aforementioned processes to translate to significantly increased max sustained winds and its going to take the better part of the 15 hours or so that it has remaining to accomplish this. The system cannot fully avail itself of even the most pristine atmospheric conditions until this is accomplished in its entirety. This is why I like the current NHC forecast, which is in line with my call for a 95 MPH landfall intensity as a cat 1 hurricane.

I don't agree with your analysis at all. Window for 3, albeit always only ajar a hair, is now just about closed and the window for cat 2 is closing. But we shall see-

Define "exploding"..... don't see this thing becoming a major, the core remains fairly broad and disorganized....has that post EWRC "skunked" appeal to me....doubt landfall greater than cat 1.

I think this has the right idea.