40/70 Benchmark

'51-'52 and '53-'54. That is just extra tropical Pacific..obvioulsy the seasons vary greatly depending on the polar fields.

Yea, you guys will....but folks on social media and the mainstream won't, not that they care enough for it to matter. lol

No worries....I just like to attach a graphic to the link, but its dangerous to do that today because no one reads. lol

Well, its useless as a seasonal forecast map....sure. But within the context of a blog focused on ENSO and the extra tropical Pacific, its fairly illuminating.

You clearly didn't read the blog, so why bother to comment- "Obviously not all of these individual seasons will be great matches, but the general overlay of the extra tropical Pacific represents a prudent starting point, since the vast majority of our weather has its origins there. Stay tuned for additional updates and further elaboration next month and throughout the fall season, as superior discrete analog seasons for winter 2023-2024 are identified"-

That is one practice I have noticed from folks on social media...they obsess over the daily fluxations and pleasure themselves to each new daily max like one giant ENSO orgy. All of these important metrics are lagged for a reason...it needs to sustain.

Just nice to see clown range start clown' around.

Absolutely.

August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

Yea, like last winter. I could def. see that...I'm not favoring a deeply negative NAO necessarily.

I have been using this site, but same data....just diffferent presentation. psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/epo.data

Yes, that is how I use it. I don't understand why they don't fix the December data...absolutely drives me insane....do that with a month no one cares about, like September or April.

I don't this event is having much impact at all.

Raindance is the best, agreed...but nobody is perfect. He did miss the NAO last season, but no one noticed because the record -PDO was so overwhelming that the blocking was negated and had little sensible impact. A similar miss this season with respect to the polar domain will likely have much larger ramifications than it did last year.

Great work. I wish I had your math skills....really allows you create some wonderful tools.

Yes...pretty much echoes what I said. Most of what was released into the atmosphere was water vapor, not S02, and thus not very impactful on the NH PV...what impact there was should have already been observed last winter. And the impact of these events is over simplified..it depends on location and global circulation patterns as to how they impact the poles, if at all. Have you read about how some eruptions back in the 1960s and in 2009 even augmented a -AO/NAO response? I am not implying that will happen this year....just drawing it to your attention because its interesting.

My point is more that ascending is favorable than it is that max is favorable...there really wasn't a strong signal for max. I'm also not trying to claim that exotic blocking should necessarily be expected this winter. But I do think that your focus on overall sunspot activity as a predictor for the NAO is misguided, as the research that I reviewed revealed that it's more about the trend (ascending vs descending) than min vs max. This is why we have years like 1994 and 2006 that were descending near the min with very positive NAO.

I say 160 because that is where 2016 was, but whatever...in that area.

Yea, I know it varies, but I'm def no expert on the solar stuff...just used the min/max dates listed on the wiki page.

If this el nino ends up with an ONI near 2.0 and the forcing makes it as far back east as about 160W, then none of this is likely to matter because we are cooked. Canonical el nino forcing that powerful would be the main driver.

Like the solar relationship, the impact of volcanic eruptions on the polar domain is also over simplified and poorly understood. There are a multitude of factors such as location of the eruption and global wind circulation patterns that dictate how it impacts the poles, if at all. Some have no impact...some produce negative AO/NAO.

2009-2010 also near solar min, but on the other side...ascending....the rest is history. Solar isn't the only factor and there are some exceptions, but this ascending vs descending dichotomy checks out most of the time looking back. 1957-1958 was ascending near solar max with a strong el nino, like This year....big blocking. I'm not trying to say slam-dunk -AO/NAO....I just think it's a bit more up for debate than some of us think.

1994 and 2006 are two perfect examples...right mear solar min, yet two very strong PV seasons....why? Descending sun.