40/70 Benchmark

We now have a Morch sun.

Nailed it. Yes.

Man, lets get that 3-4 months from now.

I have a working theory that some of it has to do with the quality of the ambient environment at the onset of an EWRC.....that shear kicked in right as the EWRC took place, and it never recovered fully. Almost like when mental illness results from being overwhelmed by a psychosocial stressor(s) during a period of increased vulnerability.

This explanation isn't very technical, but some systems just never entirely recover from major disruption to the core....almost akin to athletes that suffer a major injury (Hi, Arron). It began that EWRC right as it endured that significant shear period...and then I saw that "skunked" banded structure and said "Lee is done with RI". I if you recall on Saturday night, that is when that moron attacked me for having an agenda.

This system is one giant "nothing to see here", as I have maintained all week long. Upside is a nor 'easter.

Tossed.

Totally anecdotal level, but I have been saying all summer that this season has reminded me of 2009...cool and rainy summer.

Thank god I just missed that real heavy slug.

1.09" total on the day.

I think the path to the most wind on the west side is for this to complete extra tropical transition with great haste and essentially strike as a nor 'easter. While it is true that the wind field is expanding, the envelop of winds also becomes increasingly asymmetrical in the mid latitudes with much less wind on the west side of the system. It's on the east side where you add the forward momentum of movement where the strongest gusts more proficiently mix down. The west side is the focus on heavy rain, however.

I don't think it will be worse on the west side, with the exception of rain.

2009 being relatively shitty up here was a fluke....just so happened that the PV flexed at the perfectly wrong time to shunt those big early Feb events southward. 1982 was fine, as were 1962, 1965 and 1968. I definitely wouldn't forecast well above average snowfall with a -PDO here, but it's hardly a nail in the coffin for decent snow.

I don't think anyone was bitching or moaning...I was merely trying to understand what drove the correlation.

Yea, that is counterintuitive that -PDO is more detrimental to NE snowfall then mid Atlantic snowfall...I'll bet it has to do with the greater variance up here.

I'm not sure how -PDO correlates to more snowfall in the mid Atlantic. Doesn't make sense to me.

Off the top of my head, 1963, 1965 and 1968 were good here....in fact, the latter was one of the best in history....but there are some duds.

2009 and 1972 stick out as -PDO el nino seasons that screwed Boston...but 1958 certainly did not.

Anti correlation...meaning negative correlation, correct?

Seems like a sample size fluke to me. I have a hard time envisioning a physical reason why Philly would be better of in a -PDO than Boston. But I'm all ears....maybe -PNA not allowing s stream to amplify enough??

The pattern looks the same...no large scale shifts.

Looks like primarily noise to me.

So, you buy the Euro seasonal?

A few of us have explained ad nauseam why that is the case. Ignore at your own peril.