40/70 Benchmark

I feel like my thoughts from last week were essentially on target....no changes. SEP 7 Hurricane Lee Minimal Threat to US Hurricane Lee Minimal Threat to US High Surf Primary Impact Currently Hurricane Lee is a minimal category 1 hurricane over the central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds near 80MPH However, guidance continues to emphatically suggest that the system will soon undergo rapid intensification into at least a category 4 storm. Thus the most important consideration is whether or not this system is likely to have a major impact on the US and the answer is no. Future Path & Intensity of Lee Spell Minimal Threat to US While there is still a great deal of uncertainty among guidance concerning the precise track of Lee over the next several days, one aspect that guidance is essentially in unanimous agreement on is that the system will begin to recurve to the north by approximately 70 degrees longitude, as a weakness develops the ridge downstream from the hurricane. This is a crucial portion of the forecast because climatology can often be used as a guide when computer models are at the periphery of their more skilled range, which is the case here. In this case, it is evident that hurricanes that go onto greatly impact the NE US at least approach about 75 degrees on longitude before veering towards the north. But clearly guidance is in strong agreement that that will not be the case with Lee. Although agreement is strong, there was one lone voice of dissent amongst the European ensemble suite that would pose a particularly dire threat to the state of Florida. But this scenario is an extreme outlier considering that 51/52 European members turn Lee to the north and every one of the GFS ensemble members do. Thus confidence in the above scenario is well above average relative to the extended lead time and thus a major impact to the NE can essentially be ruled out since the hurricane will begin its recurve so far to the east. But essentially is not synonymous with entirely. Like that lone voice of dissent among the European cluster that loomed ominously for Florida, there are two outlier GFS ensemble members that draw Lee into the trough and track the system over Cape Cod on approximately September 18. Although this is an exceedingly unlikely scenario, which is illustrated by climatology, it is a theoretically plausible scenario. But Lee would first have to traverse waters that have been significantly cooled due to the upwelling caused by Hurricane Frederick and Hurricane Idalia, thus whether or not Lee would impact the Cape as a hurricane is very dubious. In fact it is more likely than not that it would have been downgraded to a tropical storm by this point, which coupled with the asymmetrical wind distribution that is characteristic of tropical storms interacting with mid latitude systems, would mean sensible impact commensurate with a typical winter nor 'easter rather than a major hurricane strike. Remain vigilant, but unalarmed and any updates will be issued later this week if warranted-

Yea...I knew there would be a deeply negative PDO, but I still ultimately underestimated it.

No one is arguing that it isn't very different at the surface.

Right....and the RONI. Its been noted for months..this is why this event will not behave as a traditional canonical el nino, regardless of peak ONI.

All I am saying is that I have yet to see any strong evidence to favor a potent PV...are there arguments in favor? Sure....and valid ones at that. There are also arguments against.

I'm not sure what new info is supposed to be gleaned from this...I don't need experts to tell me that there is excess WV in the NHEM from the volcano...no one has debated that point. I'm not trying to be a jerk, so please don't take it as such. People can argue whether or not it will have an impact this winter until they are blue in the face, but no one is going to change the other's mind. I don't think it will matter in this case, as evidenced by last March. Doesn't necessarily we have huge blocking all season, but I don't expect an overbearing PV. I still feel like people are generalizing the impact of volcanic eruptions when it's more nuanced and varied than people think...akin to people's perception of SSW ramifications. So many people assume they all result in cold in snow in their BY and that is simply not the case.

Flemish Cap

Very good point. It makes sense that it has been feast or famine to the south of SNE, where averages are less. In this area, all we have had are median snowfalls, save for last year lol

Glad they caught it. My bro in lawn got melanoma on his forehead a few years ago....just barely caught it in time.

I love that as much as snow.

Well, feel free to borrow some precip, but I want it back by mid December.

You can have some of mine.

Yea, that is one thing that we actually agree on.

Can we run a composite of you and @snowman19and shake on that for the winter? You envision last season and him 1997-1998.

Same page.

I'm just sorting through potential warm ENSO temp analogs using sensible weather over the summer, and its apparent that el nino hasn't set in yet because there aren't many great matches. Last season, that was not the case with a very well coupled 12th year la nina.

.25" today.

Yes. Agree.

I hope it gets close enough bc I would like a storm...even if it is just a nor'Easter.

What am I missing? I don't see anything compelling or any deviation from the expected...

Yes, exactly. This was my rationale when I cancelled this threat last Thursday.

Yep. Happy tracking...still going to cause some issues. All I mean is this isn't something I will blog about after the one entry to dismiss the threat last week. This will be one hell of a wave maker and plenty of beach erosion.

Sure. This won't be one.

Meaningful...sure, in the sense of major nor'Easter ...said that all along. But in my world, that is "who caresville".