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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are not getting a Pacific as favorable as 2017-2018....zero chance. Nor will there be as much blocking.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is a flaw with any analog because they aren't replica seasons...they are analog seasons. 2007 was already well into La Nina territory per ONI and the MEI during winter of 2022-2023 wasn't much higher than it is now...the extra tropical Pacific is very similar. The QBO state and position near solar Max also render it a pretty good polar analog. Both seasons are good analogs. Good luck with that Aleutian trough....let me know how that works out.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    The Cansips looks pretty good, too.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Xmas eve.....
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    How do people live there??
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think the west coast troughing will be as extreme.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    2022 is a very good analog...been saying that all summer.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's going to be a ++WPO like last year...
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get that the aggregatre anomalies in the mean are all that matter for purposes of verification, but those little idosyncracies matter come cold season. No one cares if Windsor, VT only hits 21 instead of 18 on a clear Tuesday night in January, if 31 abd snowing a few days later.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was in Uganda for that one.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get it can be annoying to see someone seemingly trying to evade responsibility for a busted forecast in search of validation, but there is always a reason for every busted forecast and I think determining said reason is the important part of forecasting. We all miss some...especially at a seasonal timescale.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could also end up beng one of those CC patented, fradulent "warm" months when it seems cool during our day-to-day activities, but warmth is realized while we sleep under the cover of night.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree. This weekend looks reasonably warm, I think...nothing savage, but...
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Would love that to persist into the cold season.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its several different factors, which definitely includes CC.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with this. We don't have the margin for error that we used to, but I also think that some of this in the northern hemisphere is due to the +AMO as well.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, part of this is due to being at the low point of a -PDO multidecadal cycle...its a combo of that and CC.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm assuming that....but it doesn't negate my point. I'm not arguing that the climate hasn't warmed or that it doesn't augment ridges...but that N Pacific pattern is more favorable in the latter composite. One had a very flat ridge with lower heights knifing through AK and one has a poleward Aleutian ridge.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks as though the negative anomaly in Canada is stronger, as well due to a better N PAC...so there is definitely some bad luck involved. Its a combo of shit luck and a bad pattern that has yielded dreadful returns. Maybe not so much for the mid atl, as its been more of an awful pattern for those areas...but I know up here in NE, we just have not been able to time an antecedent high well...even assuming a track west, which would turn to rain...so not even as many front enders.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Someone needs to in vitro this biatch.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was guilty on some of those last year, but I think most people can see where I went astray...it certainly wasn't due to blind bias like some of these guys.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    That said, I would like the Cs to take out a restraining owner on Henry...he would trade most of these big contracts ASAP.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would take Henry over Kraft as an owner...hands down.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kraft is a great bussiness and and a shitty NFL owner.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bit different...Henry is a great owner when he wants to be...but after using the Sox as a vehicle of ascent for FSG he is now content to be more frugal and avail of the fact that Fenway is a tourist destination. Kraft was always a shitty owner that picked the right coach who got the goose that laid the golden football for 20 years.
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