Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    73,224

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree.....2015 is a decent EMI match, but as you implied, the SST dipole and pressure dipoli were much more pronounced in in 2015....WWBs were much more prevalent, as well...which is which is reflected by the MEI and RONI.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just east of the dateline is textbook Modoki....you don't want it west of the dateline because then you get more Maritime influence....look at 2006: This in conjunction with descending solar is why that season sucked bum-bum.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its not, which is part of the reason why no one is calling for a cold winter.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm convinced Webber and those folks will never, ever admit they were wrong....DC could end up with 60" and they will argue that it was a classic canonical el Nino because the season was +1 and most of the snow fell in 1 or two events.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, this is me being asinine:
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just east of the dateline is not where the strongest el Nino events focus. BS.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Possible, but I doubt it.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree since the model consensus has been for a OND ONI peak since like last spring.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hope not.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think everyone understands that an identical pattern wouldn't be as cold....however, an identical pattern also would probably produce larger storms with more moisture.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do buy this potentially having something to so with CC.....also plays into why the more "feast of famine" dynamic in terms of snowfall.....tougher to get great NAO blocks, but when we get them, some of these storms are just savage.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    He's usually in the main ENSO thread.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, OND should be the peak....just below super ONI.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have noticed that Larry has referenced regarding the NAO....deeply negative seasons seem to occur less frequently.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Omega brings nothing to the table....just a troll. @snowman19 I like....little biased with his data presentation, but a lot of us are....at least he adds something.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Get a serviceable month of December in a strong el Nino, and you take it and run.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will not surprised if we look back on it fondly given some fortuitous timing, which should happen sooner or later....especially with all of the energy available around the globe right now.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is what I am skeptical of....eventually it may happen, but I am just not ready to conclude that we are there like Bluewave seems to be. Maybe, but need more time and data. I wasn't arguing that going above average in the DM mean isn't a fairly safe bet.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    December will be mild, but I don't see being like a 2006, 2015 "turn out the lights, game over" type of anomaly....it should be a serviceable month.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he's related to raindance.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its a very good analog.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, to be clear, I am not arguing against a warmer than average winter....that isn't what I was referring to with the persistence. Again, I do not debate that the climate is warming. What is dubious to me is all of the inferences with respect to the global patterns and the idea that they are going to become fixed in place. But it is feasible that they will...my contention is that in the past they have not, so we need more time in order to definitively conclude that they will.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Glorified version of persistence forecasting. It will work until it doesn't.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't expect anyone to change their stance at this stage. But the fact is that if this goes on to act like a super canonical el Nini event after a SO MEI of .3, then it will be a first.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey, I'll end up about 15mi SE of the bad snow.
×
×
  • Create New...