Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    72,468

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was about to say, I think some positive anomalies will extend into SNE.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Heh...I took it as decent over the west Pac and +AO/NAO..
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not sure I buy his dismissal of vp due to pre Sat era and inadequate sample size of east based events...it stands to reason why the vp pattern differs from other east based events due to the west PAC warmth.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Will make sense in a few weeks.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't seen anyone say that.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is what I meant, yea....either, or. Ironically it could work to our advantage for once. It acted to nullify modest attempts at ENSO in '18 and '19 and may be acting to modify an attempt at an intense event here.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    It seems as though new regimes, including ENSO and the IOD, are encountering a great deal of resistance since the residual forcing from that previous 12 year cool ENSO was so prominent.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, same thing....canonical super el nino pattern is synonymous with +AO/NAO, as is modoki the opposite.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Take a wild, crazy, off of the wall guess considering the barer of the news....lol Indian Ocean climate influences (bom.gov.au) Theoretically speaking, it upwells cooler water west of the dateline, thus it would serve to reinforce that cool west/warm east Pacific couplet that is a staple of high-end el nino events and has been lacking thus far.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    What happened there? Very weak high?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think they configure it that way so that the article shows up in all of the most highly searched "buzz" words. I see what you mean. Its a shame they have to disguise a worthwhile piece as an AMWX post from @MJO812in order to attract readers....speaks volumes about our society. lol
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't see anything wrong with the title, either...it says "starting to trend colder"...not "cold".
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is what I meant.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I recommend that site....good reads.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ideally, a weak high leading to a run-of-the-mill event with a low 980s near BM.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Or even just a system with poor high placement/lack of high so that it was a modest event. Doesn't have to be "zero" snow.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree it isn't coupled as of yet....ie the ocean and atmosphere are not communicating. The SST configuration over the tropical Pacific belies what is actually happening in the atmosphere to a degree. That should change later this fall, but its a great illustration of why operating on the premise of a super el nino is so suspect. That doesn't necessarly preclude a mild, relatively snowless witnter as being the final outcome for the east, but it is what it is.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    He didn't say a cold CONUS....he said normal to slightly below south.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Any feedback on that text I sent yesterday? I know there must be some weak/shitty high placement, but you have a better memory.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, he is a tool....I'm talking about the severe weather link from Europe. That guy is legit.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    That isn't a weenie site.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    If we are just considering el nino seasons, than its 1986 and 2009...not close.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    For SNE, there are worse things than having the el nino act weak.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I actually really like that site....follow it consistently.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    There was actually incredibly strong and persistent high latitude blocking that winter...its just wasn't over Greenland.
×
×
  • Create New...