40/70 Benchmark

Its a January and Feb analog of mine....weeeeeeeee

You are right, though....those crazy positive departures are becoming the norm.

Yea, I didn't want to go there because the CC monsters would eat me hahha

We get the blocking with a shitty Pacific and hear "Pacific is king...useless blocking"....then we get a better Pacific and the moment the blocking relaxes its climate change diatribes lol.

It looks to me like the the system from the 20th drives up near Greenland and congeals into a PV, which explains the + flip in the polar domain.....and I mean, at some point I guess the cold will need to be replenished and the pattern resets. I understand why the temp hitting 60 instead of 50 is due to CC (this is not disputed....huge posotive departures are more common), but the sequence itself I don't feel is. I still bet a lot of money that blocking redevelops in February and is paired with a better Pacific than we had in January and certainly February.

A much more concise explanation is offered up in my signature.

I just feel like the day 10 OP is useless, but just me...you do you and paste away.

EPS is great for Tuesday....some tasty members. Looks maybe a hair inside of the BM for the 20th.

Looks more like Attleboro to me.

So what do you believe happens once the MJO progresses beyond phase 6 as the calendar flips to February?

Certain posters love to focus on what they know will elicit the greatest response and angst.

My goal isn't to get to -10*F...its to have as much snowfall possible IMBY...and the month is off to a hell of a start, meltdown not withstanding....but that was expected this season. I have never felt as though it would be a big retention season. That said, I think we have an opportunity for more of that in February.

I agree that the worst of the cold will be west, but personally, I am okay with forgoing the opportunity to have the PV queef on my noggin. I agree with the pattern relaxation, but this is not December...its a new pattern with an Aleutian low in place/building PNA and another PV lobe poised for descent.

I love the later development from an IMBY perspective and am willing to gamble with that.

All that matters to me:

The late January warm up is what looks transient to me.

Especially on a model like the GFS.

Difference being I don't think this season will be a one-hit wonder that is gone within days, like 2016.

Colder version of 2015-2016, yes. I always agreed with that.

How much did you get? Bare ground headed into last weekend?

Yea, I mean .1 out of the range......doesn't make much of a difference. Its just noted for the purpose of verification.

Yea, it will probably finish .1 above my 1.7 to 1.9 ONI range, at 2.0...so I'll give him props on the strength call. But I'm generally happy with where it looks like we are headed relative to my outlook. December was milder than I thought, though. I wish I had weighed 2015 more heavily.

Quite happy with my January analogs. January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2) The only reason I left 2003 off was because of the Pacific, but sensible weather wise, similar storm track, just milder in the aggregate. You can see how prevalent the +PNA was in Jan 2003, though....I didn't expect that and we haven't seen that. Granted the Pacific was also different in 2015 but I still included it because I thought it was a decent sensible weather match throughout the spring/summer and into the fall.

Ranges from 2-3" left at my house. Down from a peak depth of 18". Full coverage, though...only grass is under and around the pine tree.

Mild, Wind Swept Weekend Rains Represent Crucial Point of Inflection for Winter 2023-2024 Some Snow Possible Tuesday & Larger Threat Looms in Extended Range Fast on the heels of last night's heavy rains, the second in a sequence of dual heavy rain events looks to extinguish the balance of any existing snowpack across the northern portion of the region on Saturday. In a virtual reenactment of Tuesday evening, yet another short wave breaks off from the consistent energy feed out west and amplifies abruptly in the midwest, which results in yet another track through the Great Lakes. It is clear that any resistance to such a track form the developing NAO block will be insufficient to lead to a more wintry outcome as a result of the mild airmass left in the wake of last night's storm system. This may understandably lead the general public to the ill-fated conclusion that winter 2023-2024 will be relatively uneventful in terms of winter weather, much like last season, given the dearth of snowfall near the coast by the midpoint of the season. However, ironically enough, it is this mild weekend rainstorm that will play an instrument role in the inflection point at which this season diverges from the rather meek winter of 2022-2023. Seeds of Changes to be Planted this Weekend It was opined last fall that the first half of January would be relatively mild with snowfall focused over the interior. Thus far that has proven accurate given the mean temperature anomaly through the first week to ten days: And the first significant snowfall of the season last weekend. However, while the high latitude block that is currently developing is not going to keep this weekend's system from passing inland, it will act to ensure an avenue for the delivery of arctic air in the wake of the storm. And that is precisely what this storm will do, as it meanders about Canada and retrogrades underneath the Greenland block as a functional polar vortex lobe. And insodoing it will also force the potential system slated to arrive approximately late on Tuesday further to the south, ensuring primarily wintry precipitation and greatly increasing the risk for significant snowfall across the region and closer to the coast. And thereafter the plot thickens beyond mid month, as per the progression conveyed in the Eastern Mass Weather Winter Outlook that was issued this past fall. "This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5". Indeed, high end potential looms as the NAO block begins to relax. And the polar vortex lobe translates east before lifting north into a "50/50 low" position, which will act to hold the cold air that it helped to deliver in the wake of this weekend's system. This is represents a rather robust signal, which is rooted in teleconnector convergence via mass flux throughout the hemisphere in both the Atlantic/Arctic: And the Pacific/Arctic: In what is a classic Archambault signal for a major east coast precipitation event. Keep all eyes on the blog for developments through the weekend and into next week as what ostensibly appears to be mild rain storm plays a crucial role in altering what has been a benign temperament of winter 2024. Indeed, changes appear to be afoot.