40/70 Benchmark

One thing that I have learned is that you have to master the art of nuanced thinking with respect to seasonal forecasting...a couple of years ago, I would have only considered basin-wide, mod-strong el Nino analogs, but I have realized that it makes little sense to be so restrictive based upon only ENSO when there is such a wide assortment of factors working in concert around the globe to consider. This is why now I will also consider what has actually happened in terms of temp and precip patterns and potent el Nino seasons like 1982 and 2015 had value...1997 did not, IMO. Rigidity is your largest foe in seasonal forecasting....any forecasting, really. Keep an open mind and try with all of your might avoid becoming married to any single ideology.

Maybe that is what he believes? You like what you believe...and they do have scientific reasoning behind it..you just don't agree with it. I think they go overboard with a lot of it, too, but its logical.

Its a good fit for 2015 on the MODOKI spectrum and also in terms of sensible weather...this is why if you go back and look at my seasonal composite, 2015-2016 is in there. Remember, basin-wide events have a great deal of variability....its acting like a toned down version of 1997 now, but I do not expect that to continue. Its much weaker and more basin-wide...I think the favorable pattern will be more protracted than it was in 2016. 1997 never even got favorable in terms of sensible weather, which I do not expect.

Well, its also basin-wide....not Modoki. This is why in basin-wide events we often see the more canonical appeal present early on before the more Modoki like patterns establish later.

Well, I think most of us "like" posts that are congruent with our own beliefs....how many of those PAC jet posts do you like? Maybe he didn't agree with Will...it doesn't mean that he doesn't respect him.

I see your point....this is a toned down version of 1997 and 2015. Agreed.

Big difference between this year and 1994, as expected, is the PV...which bodes well for an ultimate deviation from that hapless winter season. But even February 1995 eventually had a nice stretch....my one good winter storm, which dropped about 1' in ne MA.

MJO456

@Damage In Tolland, ACE is Accumulated Cyclone Energy...its a measure of tropical activity. There is fairly strong correlation between the ACE of the previous Atlantic tropical season and the character of the subtropical ridge during the ensuing winter season during a La Nina. You want high ACE preceding la Nina winters in the east.

WTH is a spoon? I know back in the day it was Forky's significant other lol

I don't agree with you......TBH I think Allsnow and Bluewave contribute more than Anthony....nothing against him.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

I would agree...still doubt 2.0, though.

Hopefully next year with what may presumably be a high ACE la nina, instead of last season, which was a high ASS la nina.

Sure......but there is also some level of culpability for those that allow themselves to be triggered by it...which is a sentiment that is also born of something less than absolute objectivity.

Its a precious few winter seasons that have resulted on much snow on the NE CP prior to Xmas...its easy to lose sight of that. Even 93-94 didn't kick off until after Xmas.

They actually bring a lot of positive weather contributions....its just that they are viewing it through a different lens then some of us and a more accurate lens, as it turns out for this month.

More like late November.

What really has gotten rare is the slow movers...that I what I thought he was originally getting at.

That is a good track to waste with no cold air, though...would be a porking for eastern areas.

Totally.

Well, I feel like that kind of coastal devastation again so soon on the heels of the Blizzard of '78 and the Perfect Storm was the anomaly.

I'm not there yet. If the whole winter succumbs to a roaring PAC jet, then maybe.

Hibernation....just like they had during the decade leading up to that one.

Yea, that map is crap....yours look great.