40/70 Benchmark

I hope so....snow isn't on the table and I am planning one more run at leaf touch up.

I think it was the March Super Storm for me....Feb 2013 maybe second.

Its a -fold issue for me: 1) l live in an area that is notorious for underperforming on winds in the MRV....this issue is augmented by the fact that guidance is usually overzealous, as well. 2) The "upside" is a loss of power with three little kids. Pass.

Why did @bluewavecross the road?

Hungry, hungry Hippy

More margin for error at least in terms of climo by January.

Yes, I agree that losing the blocking is going to shift that warmth east...was just saying the same thing.

Here is an example of the impact of the NAO....it's not "useless" and it does matter, granted the Pacific is king. The warmth should spread east once it flips positive and the PAC jet persists, potentially better aligning with my composite.

Yea, it's a great late month match once the AO/NAO go positive.

Here a couple of quotes from my work to remain mindful as the frustration mounts. There will be undoubtedly a great deal of unrest from the contingent of self-proclaimed weather experts on social media who remain traumatized from what seems like a multi-decadal run of cool ENSO events. And while some of that residual la Nina like atmospheric momentum will undoubtedly remain, rest assured that the wheels of change will be in motion by the new year. El Niño will continue its westward progression at the surface towards being better colocated with the central Pacific forcing as the polar stratosphere concurrently begins to warm. There Should be no repeat of January 2023. Primary Extratropical Pacific Analogs:1953-1954,1965-1966,1972-1973,2004-2005,2018-2019

I'm not.

'82 and '15 are both on my composite.

It looks alike in the Pacific, not the arctic.

Sometimes I wish he'd punt his laptop.

Maybe confide in a met friend?

It is a matter of opinion... they really do believe that the west Pacific warm pool has altered the hemispheric pattern moving forward

I think it peaks around 1.2

Yea, we'll see. I still expect a much better season than 1994-1995, but like I said...if not, then back to the drawing board. But even @Allsnowis optimistic about January and February.

This season will be an interesting test because in my mind, the polar domain was all that separated this season from a year like 1994 or 2006...if winter goes onto suck anyway, then yea....I would rethink some things. That said, I am not concerned at this point.....December should have been mild.

I understand that the polar domain may be less important than it was 50 years ago, but its still a factor.

Yes, that was the underlying theme of my work. If we had a strong PV, then turn out the lights and and wait for spring training.

Kev's cousin.

Yea, no way. Maybe we brown sombrero our way to below normal snowfall, but it won't be for lack of chances.

And a couple of years ago, I would have missed that thinking it was too strong of an el Nino to warrant consideration.

We def. have trolls...but I think we all like to rib the other side a bit as the weather dictates...I mean, be honest...if we had stolen a big snow event this month, tell me you wouldn't be asking Allsnow and Bluewave if they could help shovel the 12" of MJO phase 5 off of your driveway Its all in good fun....same in sports. We are human. Its all about the scoreboard, as it dictates in which direction she shit gets blown.