40/70 Benchmark

I don't agree with that.

Not sure.

Great post.......agreed. If the polar fields crap the bed, then we 1994-1995. But I still trust in the key solar differences to ensure that does not happen...I am sure snowman is more skeptical, so we will just have to see. I do foresee somewhat of a thaw in mid to late January before the real show in February, so I guess whether or not we capitalize on the better days in the first half of January will be a crucial point of inflection for this season.

I liked the period around Xmas to NY last month, but I'm not expecting anything at this point...if it pops up, so be it...I would take it.

The stakes are higher with a true SSW.....a generally weak PV gives you a nice, safe floor with a lower ceiling, but a SSW can either give you February 2010, or February 2019.

It kind of seems like the PV may kick to the other side of the globe again, but I expect a major disruption in early January.

I am so sick of the PV kicking to the other side of the globe....can't we get it to near Hudson Bay just once...ugh.

Yea, I expect a lag, though.....because the reservoir of cold across Canada needs to be replenished....which is why I think the period of +AO/NAO prior to the reshuffle of the Pacific may be a blessing in disguise.

Yea, I certainly do not expect a very cold month of January...just cold enough to get "in the game", so to speak.

I think what I did poorly with is identifying the Pacific jet as primary cause of the warmth...instead opting to articulate it as "western troughing" and "cool ENSO atmospheric momentum". I could have done a better job conveying that. My understanding of the Pacific jet isn't great...I need work there.

Yea, I tried to go out of my way to communicate that key difference between this season and the 2009 analog when I did my work last month.... some periods of a stronger PV are likely, especially early on, as implied earlier. This placement is also quite similar to the mean seasonal forcing during the QBO/solar el Nino analog season of 2009-2010, albeit even slightly further to the west as to include more maritime phase 6 involvement: Which is one of the reasons why the coming season is unlikely to rival that one in terms of consistent cold and record magnitude of blocking/mid Atlantic snows. However, the winter pattern would also be volatile with extensive thawing periods due to the influence of MJO phase 6, which would feature a stronger PV working in conjunction with western troughing, which resonates with continued cool ENSO atmospheric momentum. Thus while more snowfall and colder temperatures than last winter is quite likely throughout the east, winter '23-24' may not be remembered for its snowpack retention along much of the coastal plane.

Thanks, guys. Good stuff.

Yea, same page. Care to link that OLR model?

Yea, I don't expect anything until after NYE.

What are you thinking, second week of January?

Well, a tee shirt will have to do.

Talk dirty to me....I will be raking in a wife beater

One thing I like is that the brief Stein from November seems to be a thing of the past.....seems to be plenty of precip. I know the @TauntonBlizzard2013's of the world will expect that to abate once the cold comes, but I don't think so.

You're a killah

...to get to phase 5

Those lower heights by AK look to be getting into a more palatable position at that point.

I'm going to have to take a look this and probably the rest of December when I have more down time tomorrow.

Just embrace it, dude....can't change it. Mother nature will take care of that in due time.

I hope so....snow isn't on the table and I am planning one more run at leaf touch up.

I think it was the March Super Storm for me....Feb 2013 maybe second.