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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, fine....just saying I think it has the right idea...my guess is we see Maritime phases coinciding with the wait for the Strat warming to propagate downward.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do not agree.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet the GEFS are right with the Maritime forcing mid January.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Stay safe
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    No it won't.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    We're onto 2024.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still don't see anything to get excited about in terms of storms...while that certainly could change, I previously stated that I will not be suprised if we waste early January and need to wait until late month, beyond the reshuffle/thaw.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    There are a few like that and this is what drowns out some outstanding analysis in this subforum.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    December 2022 was a pretty extreme RNA, though....while I understand the propensity for contemporary NAO blocking to be displaced southward and appreciate the risks that entails, I am quite certain we will have more working in our favor relative to last season.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last January was a great example of this....western biased +PNA went a tough over the west coast.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    This evolution would be absolute chef's kiss for verification purposes.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Dude, we had one in February and look to he having another one 11 months later.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not for me.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    It definitely won't be as cold in the east due to the PDO, agreed, but that doesn't necessarily preclude a good snow-stretch. I get that the PDO is most highly correlated to temp late in the season, but it's also unwise to ignore what will be a very disturbed polar domain. Most of the shitty snow years in your data set had a very strong PV and given that we won't see a record trough down to Baja like we did last year, that will matter.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    @512highHaving the PV near Hudson's Bay is just about ideal for NE snowfall.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the only reason it wasn't higher on my list is the PDO. I also doubt the NAO finishes THAT negative....but it's great from an ENSO standpoint.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    The hints of the PV dropping IVOF HB have me absolutely ready to derobe and just lather up.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh yea...."sne area gonna get alot of snow after NY just you wait. Those who say no don't say right info"
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can see George slowly reverting back like a werewolf after sundown...each wintery run sprouts a bit more hair on his back and lengthening weenie-claws lol
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    He's baaaaaaaacccckkkkk
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is a great list because you can see the strong dichotomy with respect to the polar domain...the years that made a good come back looked alot like this year. The average is pretty useless IMO....its like taking the ensemble mean when half of the members phase an event and half don't.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, puff, puff pass on that...I'd rather risk precip type issues.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, fair enough. I don't care to have the heart of the cold personally...not to distract from the fact that these SSW events are not fail safe. There is risk.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we can put to bed the idea that Tonga was going to cause a ++AO...at least for those few who weren't convinced after last year.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The frigid patterns tend to promote more CJs, too.
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