40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I could totally see the month just kind of being normal....which ends up as another subpar season, and a lack of blocking would leave less margin for error. Agreed.
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That may shed some light on the NAO....we'll see what happpens....
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I feel like there is some obfuscation and equivocation going on here....everything has gone so shitty for so long that people are conditioned to assume that that will continue, which triggers skepticism of objective analysis of guidance that isn't dire or offers reason for optimism. I agree regarding the blocking, but I see no reason to doubt the favorable Pac look during a time that is climo favored to look like that in a warm ENSO.
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Care to comment on my take? Where is the lack objectivity? What do you disagree with??
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TBH, the GEFS maybe the safest outcome (high floor) from an IMBY standpoint....that looks almost La Nina like. The GEPS and EPS are high stakes.....greater ceiling-lower floor.
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Okay, so.... 1) You are assuming the GEFS is correct over the EPS and GEPS in slowing the MJO, which has not worked all year... 2) And you are assuming that the eastern heights will verify higher than forecasted by even the GEFS. Got it.
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GEFS could have a latitudinal gradient running through our area, but I see no issue with the GEPS and EPS.
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That is kind of a la Nina look on the GEFS.
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GEPS is the same general theme and the GEFS is more of a gradient pattern.
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I see no issue to start February.....EPS and GEPS look great and the GEFS is more of a gradient look that can work in SNE with a cold Canada.
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Wasn't directed at you...just to you.
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No way. The only area I am somewhat worried about is coastal SNE....for everyone else normal is well within reach, but even for coastal SNE. People become mired in these negative thought patterns when it isn't snowing much and it impacts their ability to objectively assess how quickly 1-2 large events and a few minors can change things.
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Yea, we are probably a couple of inches below normal....not much.
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For whom??
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Noted, but I'll hedge against that. The progression of the MJO has been underplayed all season.
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February 1996 was the only month that was meh where I am that season. December, January, March and even April rocked.
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Which is very comforting from about my area points north, but I know it usually takes more than that there. Hopefully we can catch a few breaks.....or one big one. lol
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I don't know....maybe, but I have seen set ups like that in the past that have been very fruitful. We'll see.
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I remember people were saying the same thing back in December, but the progression of the MJO has been underestimated all season...granted, December was still a blood bath, but that isn't the point. The MJO never stalled.
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January never looked like wall-to-wall snow/cold to me. It has been warmer than I thought though, admittedly.
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What is wrong with this? I think someone kicked the can into your grape lol
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Why? I haven't looked at much long range lately with the more active short/medium range.
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One big event will hit my range for CPK.
