40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Yea, I could see another nuisance day, sure.
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The chances of a huge comeback are taking a very large hit this week from a climatological standpoint and that can not be ignored. Does it mean that we won't have an enjoyable month of February? No and I think that we will....but I am starting to doubt that 1958 or 1966 is walking through that door. I do not have snow goggles on when I take these stances, nor do I remain fixed to an idea despite emerging data to the contrary.
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Ha...I'm from Wilmington...yea, that is a long commute. It actually wasn't awful for me coming from Methuen to Chelsea today...probably speaks to the ineffectual nature of this "storm".
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Eh....I saw Raindance point out in his analogs many of the -PDO seasons that just didn't want to snow in this area...admitted that he couldn't explain it. Say what you want about him personally, but I really give credit there if this doesn't turn around. But I guess since I apparently copied him, I can take credit, too?
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Credit Raindance and Omega on that....call it a lucky guess, call it outstanding forecasting, whatever you wish...but they were all over this season inventing ways to not snow in SNE. This is aside from MBY...not complaining in a personal level.
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Its very frustrating when you nail certain aspects of the season, like blocking, several months out, but the atmosphere just seeks out ways to not snow, anyway. December was a brutal Pacific, sure....but this is just brutal luck.
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I did not think we would come up empty this week, nuisance snows not withstanding. That moves the needle for me.
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Totally respect that....but my commute is over an hour on a "good day".
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Essentially whiffing on this week was not a good sign. Theoretically speaking, we still have plenty of time, but many of the backloaded El Nino seasons were off to the races prior to the close of January. If we don't have a major region wide event prior to or imminent by the start of February, then its time to panic.
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Today's deal was just a PITA nuisance that I would have foregone if afforded the opportunity...during the morning coming off of a holiday weekend. It didn't quite start soon enough nor is it large enough to warrant a snow day, so you have to deal with it and the inconvenience of it far outweighs the appeal to me.
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Friday is toast.
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El Nino 2023-2024
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I knew that there had to be a catch when I saw you you had posted a tweet about a SSW. Thankfully, the Pacific looks great in February. -
El Nino 2023-2024
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's been too slow most of the season, though. -
El Nino 2023-2024
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
@griteateris a must-read poster. -
Correct.
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Yes. All I am saying is that qualitatively speaking I had the warmest anomalies and coolest anomalies in the right areas. It's not like I had New England the coolest relative to average.
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Very fair post and I agree. I need to work on how to account for that in the composites. Thanks.
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I did get the general pattern correct, I just wasn't extreme enough, which I think is a more palatable error in a seasonal effort.
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Well, troll or not....I don't move the goal posts. I have been significantly too cool so far....that is fact. Its not because I am biased, its because seasonal forecasting is hard.
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I corrected that.
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I was definitely significantly too cool in December, but I think everyone was in the same boat on that....and you never issued a map or forecast, so....
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Sorry...misleading. Here is the same scale.
