40/70 Benchmark

Well, the MJO is departing phase 6 by February...its a matter of amplitude in phase 7. I see a pathway to kind of a meh February perhaps, but I don't envision a repeat of December or even January.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/some-late-week-light-snow-before.html

Some Late Week Light Snow Before Moderation Looking ahead through the Balance of January The coldest week of the season thus far looks to include one more chance for some snowfall across at least the southern half of the region later on Friday into very Saturday, as a second lobe of the polar vortex struggles to amplify in the wake of the first, which ushered in this current bout of arctic chill. This could potentially result in a period of light snow from essentially the Mass Pike points southward beginning late Friday afternoon: And perhaps periods of moderate snowfall near the south coast through Friday evening before departing the cape and islands after midnight early Saturday morning: Light snowfall amounts are anticipated at this time with an update issued if necessary, however, major changes are anticipated. Then the pattern begins to enter a period of transition into next week and beyond. Moderation Expected Next Week Guidance continues in strong agreement that the pattern will relax and temperatures will modify, as the polar vortex shifts into Greenland and troughing settles into the western CONUS. This is consistent with passage of the MJO through Maritime phase 6. However, the primary difference between this milder period and the stretch earlier in the season is that the higher heights should be focused across the northeastern CONUS, as dictated by the aforementioned tropical forcing. The is in sharp contrast to the period in December, in which a portent Pacific jet eradicated the entire North American continent of cold air. This means that while the pattern will certainly grow much milder, the cold air source will remain nearby and thus wintry threats cannot be ruled out. Additionally, it will not take as long to see larger sensible weather variation once the pattern changes, since the cold air supply will not be extinguished. This will be important towards the end of the month and into February. February Sneak Preview There are suggestions that later this month the cold air boundary will begin to press slowly southward as the MJO continues to travel through phase 6 and the extra tropical Pacific begins to respond: This is where the plot thickens, so to speak, as the European ensemble and the Canadien ensemble suites progress the MJO into phase 7 near the onset of February. This triggers the amplification of ridging over northwestern Canada, which aids in the faster and more proficiently delivery of cold. into the eastern CONUS. However, the GFS ensemble suite offers a dissenting progression. It stagnates the MJO in phase 6, which would protract the more "gradient" like thermal field throughout the first week of February and delay the more drastic change until approximately February 7. Given the fact that the first week of February is a very climatologically favored timeframe for highly impactful snow events across the region during warm ENSO years, this is a high stakes period, so it is important to consider which camp maybe more correct. Tropical Considerations on Pattern Evolution There is certainly a case to be made for either progression. It is apparent that the MJO has remained biased towards the Maritime continent this far this season given the residual cool ENSO GLAAM. This could be considered data in favor of a slower GFS type of progression, however, this is not uncommon for the first half of El Niño seasons. Additionally, there has also been notable bias evident among guidance to be too lethargic with the pace of the MJO this season, which would favor a faster progression into phase 7. It seems more likely that perhaps the amplitude of the MJO in phases 7 and 8 may be modeled too great during the month of February. A weakening of the wave in these phases would be similar to the seasons such as February 1995 and 2007, which also featured a prevalent Maritime influence in the midst of residual cool ENSO GLAM/-PDO. The continued progression of the MJO into phase 7 by the onset of February is also congruent with the forecast progression of the OLR, as it implies a progression of convective forcing out of the Maritime continent and towards the dateline. Note the simultaneous decrease in vertical ascent in the Maritimes and decrease in descent over the dateline, which is consistent with a progressive shift west in convective forcing through phase 6 and into phase 7. Region 1.2 Region 3 Region 3.4 Region 4 10JAN2024 25.0 0.9 27.4 2.0 28.4 1.9 29.7 1.5 In summer, while it seems likely that the GEFS suite is in error in delaying the progression of the MJO into phase 7, the amplitude of the MJO will likely be decreasing. Thus the hemispheric pattern may be more prone to extra tropical influences, which could mitigate a return to more wintry conditions in the mid latitudes should the polar vortex re-strengthen as some guidance currently suggests.

Agreed. Cause for concern....as I feel like the amplitude of the MJO in early February may be over modeled, which would leave us at the mercy of extra tropical forcing.

Congrats?

Verification of Tuesday Mess Overall Well Forecast Event Here is the Final Call pertaining to Tuesday's messy event for review. Versus what actually transpired in terms of snowfall. While this was a quality forecast overall, there were a few blemishes. Firstly, a few amounts over interior southeastern Mass, the immediate Boston area and northern Rhode Island exceeded the depicted 1-3" range and some icing actually was observed right down to the coast on the north shore. Secondly, the 3-6" range across southwestern New Hampshire, southern Vermont and the Berkshires proved slightly too aggressive, which left this region between two areas of forcing. An expansion of the 2-5" range northwest would have covered this area. The system became slightly stronger than anticipated, which triggered stronger mid level forcing further to northwest over northern New England, while the the lower level lift the warmer air aloft overrunning th colder air at the surface was positioned across much of southern New England. Final Grade: B+

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/verification-of-tuesday-mess.html B+

Well, I have just about normal snowfall, so you may want to change your skibbies

I had 25" with a 22" max depth...nothing extraordinary.

...or 2015.

I never thought that I'd hate to see it, but I do...hate to see it.

Man, you are distraught...we need a CJ.

Corrupted thaw lol I like it...better than the corrupt winters I have been observing...tired of Ma nature's politics.

Northern Essex County got rocked that month....I remember I was in the Marine Corps Delayed Entry program training for Paris Island until the college semester ended. I would notice there was more snow at the recruting office in N Andover than in Wilmington....was happy to see, but pissed MBY had a bit less lol

As great as it was here, so do I....

I was listening to Cold Play on radio just re-reading...this song always reminds me of that storm and month.

Yes, the next one...thought so. I remember I worked Sunday's at MB for time and a half in those days and I had gotten home in the evening from that shift and just disrobed to that AFD.

There was a better version that mentioned equal to or exceeding Blizz of '78 headline.

Practice warming your tushy on the black car seat?

I had like and 8.5" and a 14" storm like 3 days apart in early April...Sox game was snowed out. Once in a lifetime season.

I will never forget @wdrag's epic AFD at BOX on the Sunday evening of 3/4/2001....still have it printed and saved somewhere. Best ever.

Please don't......

Where is that? I hope it works out for the SOP guys....I don't expect much, but I am rooting for them down there.

......everything. Especially when there is emotional investment involved.

I hope I am wrong about March.