40/70 Benchmark

Man, this place is a bloodbath this AM...glad I tuned out last night.

I still think the MJO will speed up, but we'll see.

I have seen plenty of SWFE patterns that favored from around the pike points northward and even I 84...just depends and if there is ever a time for cold to get the jump climo wise, its these next few weeks.

Usually both...I think the late 90's were genuinely worse than the 80s, which had some bad luck.

This argues for forcing progressing westward.

TBH, I won't be surprised if I see 100% rain or 100% snow...not very insightful, I know...but just depends where the boundary sets up.

Maybe you end up correct, but this latitude can do just fine with a +AO/NAO and cold Canada......December 2007 is a perfect example.

I afforded myself an "out clause" next week in yesterday's blog.... However, the primary difference between this milder period and the stretch earlier in the season is that the higher heights should be focused across the northeastern CONUS, as dictated by the aforementioned tropical forcing. The is in sharp contrast to the period in December, in which a potent Pacific jet eradicated the entire North American continent of cold air. This means that while the pattern will certainly grow much milder, the cold air source will remain nearby and thus wintry threats cannot be ruled out

It would be nice to make lemonade from a lemon set up, instead of making lactose intolerant rhea from a hot fudge Sundae set up for once.

If the timing were better, sure...but yesterday right during the day following a holiday...not quite bad enough to get the day off, but bad enough to be a nuisance....eh.

Yea, coastals are hit and miss for us, but SWFE/overrunning usually have a high floor here.....though I def need a stronger high than you do.

Since 2016, sure.....like we had bad luck in the 80s/early 90s and late 90's, too. Again, need a larger sample size.

I like my spot for that....for the same reason that I sometimes get porked by those dry air corridors flowing down from Maine during CJ events.

That probably even works for me.

Its been worse these past several years, though...definitely exacerbated to some degree by a generally hostile Pacific.

100% agreed.

One thing I don't mind about CC is the increased frequency of larger events at the expense of currier and ives shit. Sign me up for that....I am okay with missing out on days like Tuesday in favor of more like January 7th even if the overall total drops a bit.

Yes.

I understand that, but the positive temp departures haven't been extreme, either.

You need to make lemonade when ma nature insists on kicking you in the lemons.

I have definitely had it better than SNE the past year an a half, but the prior several years were a real butt-plug for my spot.

Yea, the climate is definitely warming...no doubt. But on top of that the multi-decadal pattern has been tilted against the east coast. They have been doing just fine out west, despite CC....and again, I get the CC predisposing us to MC forcing argument, but I am not ready to accept that as a permeant change, just as I wasn't with respect to the GOA "warm blob" phenomenon that we benefited from last decade.

You know its bad when you lose count of how many years its been since you sniffed normal snowfall.

Yes...43rd consecutive year that I can't count. Corrected.

Man, that hit the spot....I needed a CC nut-shot while down and squirming....the blind reading the room The thing is the west has been doing just fine, so aside from Bluewave's MJO phase 5 swallowing the world stuff, its more that than CC. Just a string of shitty Pacific years.