40/70 Benchmark

OR NSATT

Yes...1978 is a more valid analog in that regard, not that we are getting 2-3'.

For 20-dollah? If only...get the student loan apps ready, kids-

Hi, me Ray....I like snow long time. Me see snow?

I did not, only because I didn't expect the DM PNA or NAO to be as severely negative, but there are aspects of that season that I like, certainly. Not surprised. I just felt like that year was a more extreme version of what we are seeing this year in the aggregate.

Trust me, I didn't notice lol...basically what I was getting at was lower se heights and the velocity decreases. A more stout PNA rice should accomplish that.

# 10 isn't bad, either.

Just need to close that off about 6 hours sooner. I could see it was being captured just by the surface depiction that was posted.

I have said this before, but the "slow crawl" crap doesn't really do much for amounts...it just gives Kevin fuel for his "days and days" rhetoric, but the good news is that he'll do it, regardless. The intense dynamics are exhausted within 12-18 hours, anyway in about 98% of systems.

I'm pretty sure it's transient, awyway.

That looks like its in the process of being captured.

Hey John, How is this issue mitigated? Would a larger PNA spike lower southeast heights? I would think a large enough PNA ridge increase would trigger a "tipping point" whereas more energy is conserved and a historic solution bursts into existence....

I do think he is brilliant, but at the end of the day we are all here to learn from one another. I'm not sure why he posts here if he is so paranoid about someone copying his work...nevermind the fact that he makes it a point to release a month before everyone else. Why would I write so much and not make a single cent from doing so just to copy somebody's composite maps...lol It makes zero sense. Funniest part is if I had used all +PDO analogs he would have called me an idiot...use -PDO analogs and I have copied him. Interesting guy.

EPS looks better, too...not really closer, but develops faster.

That storm looks like something from the 1993-1994 season....scooter snorting OES lines off of my corpse.

That is the storm.....it phases faster...gets us with a good CJ focused storm, then blows up in the Maritimes.

Moderate as is, but not far from orgasmic.

The whole system is more negatively oriented and coalesces faster.

This

That is one ominous trend from 12z.

This to me looks like the model struggling to congeal those parcels of energy.....really odd with multiple low pressure centers bounding around. I doubt it works out like that....this is fluid. I think we'll end up with a pretty good event.

Looks like one of those deals that funnels down drier air from ME right into MBY...pickles will love that if it sticks around.