40/70 Benchmark

I don't need to in order to recognize which has a higher ceiling.

The OP trend is for a later phase and the EPS trend is for a stronger phase...not a bad combo- piece.

Geez, OP Euro phases the whole PV lobe in...no wonder it does that on the 20th. Its doing it later than it was yesterday, which is a great trend for most of NE.

Days and days...

Yea, the - NAO helps to "back" the flow and provide a reservoir, if you will. for all of that conserved energy to pool into beneath our latitude.

I do....I was a junior in HS just before XMAS break...we were expecting 1-3" and they didn't even dismiss us early. I was doing donuts out in the parking lot with my old '86 cutlass Supreme....haha rearwheel drive FTW.

Its something you would rather have in your corner because it also provides more margin for error with respect to track, but generally I agree.

I just meant as an example shrouded in hyperbole of how you don't need blocking to be wintry....but it should come back, anyway.

Its a January and Feb analog of mine....weeeeeeeee

You are right, though....those crazy positive departures are becoming the norm.

Yea, I didn't want to go there because the CC monsters would eat me hahha

We get the blocking with a shitty Pacific and hear "Pacific is king...useless blocking"....then we get a better Pacific and the moment the blocking relaxes its climate change diatribes lol.

It looks to me like the the system from the 20th drives up near Greenland and congeals into a PV, which explains the + flip in the polar domain.....and I mean, at some point I guess the cold will need to be replenished and the pattern resets. I understand why the temp hitting 60 instead of 50 is due to CC (this is not disputed....huge posotive departures are more common), but the sequence itself I don't feel is. I still bet a lot of money that blocking redevelops in February and is paired with a better Pacific than we had in January and certainly February.

A much more concise explanation is offered up in my signature.

I just feel like the day 10 OP is useless, but just me...you do you and paste away.

EPS is great for Tuesday....some tasty members. Looks maybe a hair inside of the BM for the 20th.

Looks more like Attleboro to me.

So what do you believe happens once the MJO progresses beyond phase 6 as the calendar flips to February?

Certain posters love to focus on what they know will elicit the greatest response and angst.

My goal isn't to get to -10*F...its to have as much snowfall possible IMBY...and the month is off to a hell of a start, meltdown not withstanding....but that was expected this season. I have never felt as though it would be a big retention season. That said, I think we have an opportunity for more of that in February.

I agree that the worst of the cold will be west, but personally, I am okay with forgoing the opportunity to have the PV queef on my noggin. I agree with the pattern relaxation, but this is not December...its a new pattern with an Aleutian low in place/building PNA and another PV lobe poised for descent.

I love the later development from an IMBY perspective and am willing to gamble with that.

All that matters to me:

The late January warm up is what looks transient to me.

Especially on a model like the GFS.