40/70 Benchmark

Those charts blow.

I could see the hills begin as snow that struggles to stick at first...those simulated RAD images are smoothed.

Final Call for Sunday-Monday Low to Moderate Impact Winter Storm Rain to Snow Transition with Worst Expected Overnight Sunday Into Early Monday Synoptical Overview: A ridge is currently in the process of taking shape over the Western CONUS. This ridge is serving to aid in the coalescence of energy from two systems in the general vicinity of the Ark-La-Tex region. This burgeoning west coast ridge will be instrumental in the development of the impending storm system in three ways. 1) As mentioned, it will aide in triggering the union of the two systems to form a relatively formidable wave on approach this weekend. 2) It will allow yet another piece of energy from the northern stream to careen down over the crest of the ridge to interact with the storm and infuse cold air into the region this weekend, thus transitioning rain to snowfall. 3) This infusion of northern stream energy, while adding enough cold to trigger a change over to snowfall across the region, will ironically interact with the storm just enough to ensure that it continues to move along and does not become a truly high-end winter event. At the same time, confluence to the south of the vary large vortex in the general vicinity of Greenland will be adding resistance to the progression of the precipitation once north of the Mass turnpike and especially the Vermont and New Hampshire borders. This makes the snowfall forecast rather precarious because not only will the degree of cold infusing in from the north be marginal to allow for a significant snowfall, but so will the amount of lift making it far enough north as a result of the confluence. But be that as it may, the current forecast philosophy is that the southern stream origins of this storm coupled with the significant phase change from negative to positive PNA in response to the building west coast ridge will allow this system to gain sufficient latitude as to impact the region in a significant manner. And this means that the most favored areas for a significant amounts of snowfall will be the central, elevated areas of the Worcester hills and the Berkshires. Anticipated Storm Evolution: Light rain will begin to overspread the region Sunday morning, and may be mixed with sleet and snow in the Berkshires from the outset. Rain will then begin to mix with sleet and snow across interior southern New England Sunday afternoon. And intensify overnight on Sunday and especially during the predawn hours of Monday, as modest deep layer East-northeasterly flow transports moisture in from the ocean and triggers some slight topographical enhancement across the east facing slopes of the Worcester hills, northeastern Connecticut and northwestern Rhode Island. As alluded to previously, the highest confidence areas for significant amounts of snowfall will be the central, elevated areas of the Worcester hills and the Berkshires. This is because these areas are elevated and far enough north that the column should eventually cool sufficiently, albeit by a narrow margin. And these locales are also far enough south that sufficient lift to overcome marginal boundary layer is highly likely, especially considering that there should also be a slight upslope component. The heavier fall rate of precipitation during this period will expedite the transition of rainfall to snow to the coast during the pre-dawn hours or early Monday morning. Thus the Monday AM commute should be a slippery one, as colder air continues to infiltrate the region. Expect delays and cancellations on Monday morning, as this will be the peak of the storm across eastern areas. Any residual rain or mixed precipitation near the coast, cape and islands changes to snow by midday on Monday before precipitation begins to taper off from west to east during the afternoon. And ends everywhere during the day on Monday, well in advance of the evening commute. FINAL CALL: First Call Issued Thursday January 25 @ 11AM:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/final-call-for-sunday-monday-low-to.html

Hope you do well there, man....been boned so far.

Sell that.

I thought the WAA was more impressive in Jan 7th deal...it was immense. One of the more impressive WAA displays I have witnessed.

"Oh Mark...get the "golden NAM" ready while I pour some wine"...

Sarcasm, @The 4 Seasons

Right....assuming its placement of synoptic features are right, which is dubious unless you know to only utilize it at close range in warm air advection scenarios. Its a great tool if used correctly.

Phew..

Exactly....everyone will cling to either the "no snow " or, H5 plots as validation in the face of mounting frustration. Can see it now.....everyone wins (loses). People need to salvage forecast victory in the face of dissapointment with respect to sensible weather outcomes.

I will issue tonight...wife and 3 kids are back, so need to clean my son's rhea off of my arm and nap before dealing with the Sunday-Monday rhea.

I used the NAM for that last SWFE event and the thermal fields were perfect. That said, I am not expecting a ton of snow here from this system...too many flags.

Nothing against him....the pattern is explosive, high potential and resembles that of a modoki el Nino....but I don't like the overall look for NE snow. He will tell you the same thing....but its the type of pattern that will protract and intensify bickering because it will exacerbate frustration, while leaving each side a pathway to claim "victory" that will be used as a means to compensate for said frustration.

I am not optimistic about this first 10 days of February or so....has SNE bone-job written all over it and the bickering will continue. People like Pope and Omega will be citing the lack of snow posting clown GIFS, while Brooklyn will be posting animated plots of a bowling ball plowing through Halifax and Georgia.

This one still missing?

I'm not sure where the idea of the NAM having a cold bias comes from...

Sure it makes sense, but east of us, unless the whole pattern corrects westward.

I'm not sure how you arrive at that.....

Man, you can see how this pattern can make someone want to extract their eyeballs with a pair of tweezers........big ULL buries itself in the SE next week and slides out to sea fast enough to not interact with the diving N stream, which then blows up too late and murders the Maritimes next weekend with a new ULL posted to bury itself in the SE again. Hate to say it but I think that is what makes the most sense...its the kind of sequence that can make one long for spring.

January 7 was three times better than Jan 30, 2022 IMBY....not close.

I don't like the banded/blob runs...its the guidance conveying that the mid level dynamics are marginal. Euro just pulled that shit again.

I don't buy that odd hole over my area, but if it happens, it happens.