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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    "Oh Mark...get the "golden NAM" ready while I pour some wine"...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sarcasm, @The 4 Seasons
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....assuming its placement of synoptic features are right, which is dubious unless you know to only utilize it at close range in warm air advection scenarios. Its a great tool if used correctly.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Phew..
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly....everyone will cling to either the "no snow " or, H5 plots as validation in the face of mounting frustration. Can see it now.....everyone wins (loses). People need to salvage forecast victory in the face of dissapointment with respect to sensible weather outcomes.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will issue tonight...wife and 3 kids are back, so need to clean my son's rhea off of my arm and nap before dealing with the Sunday-Monday rhea.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I used the NAM for that last SWFE event and the thermal fields were perfect. That said, I am not expecting a ton of snow here from this system...too many flags.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing against him....the pattern is explosive, high potential and resembles that of a modoki el Nino....but I don't like the overall look for NE snow. He will tell you the same thing....but its the type of pattern that will protract and intensify bickering because it will exacerbate frustration, while leaving each side a pathway to claim "victory" that will be used as a means to compensate for said frustration.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am not optimistic about this first 10 days of February or so....has SNE bone-job written all over it and the bickering will continue. People like Pope and Omega will be citing the lack of snow posting clown GIFS, while Brooklyn will be posting animated plots of a bowling ball plowing through Halifax and Georgia.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    This one still missing?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sure where the idea of the NAM having a cold bias comes from...
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure it makes sense, but east of us, unless the whole pattern corrects westward.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sure how you arrive at that.....
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Man, you can see how this pattern can make someone want to extract their eyeballs with a pair of tweezers........big ULL buries itself in the SE next week and slides out to sea fast enough to not interact with the diving N stream, which then blows up too late and murders the Maritimes next weekend with a new ULL posted to bury itself in the SE again. Hate to say it but I think that is what makes the most sense...its the kind of sequence that can make one long for spring.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    January 7 was three times better than Jan 30, 2022 IMBY....not close.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't like the banded/blob runs...its the guidance conveying that the mid level dynamics are marginal. Euro just pulled that shit again.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't buy that odd hole over my area, but if it happens, it happens.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe per 10:1, but not otherwise. Actually, it isn't at all....not via WxBell.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO is a bit worse all around...really sucks for my area.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the mid levels get cranking late and there is some deep layer easterly flow, so that is probably why its a bit less in the valley.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like New Brunswick gets the demon on 00z GFS....N ME gets a decent hit.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ran the 00z GEM from my basement....slight se shift. Jacks my old hood in Wilmington with just over a foot.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    March 1984, Dec 1981 for NE MA, too....Feb 1989 on the cape.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was so lucky that Jan 7 event flipped to powder........CF slipped through at like 430AM after about 8-9" of paste.
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