40/70 Benchmark

2017-2018 had a lot going for it....I nailed that season and it was pretty clear why NOAA was going to be off during that fall. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/11/winter-2017-2018-year-of.html Not the case here, which isn't to say that it can not, or definitively will not be good.....but odds are certianly more heavily skewed towards another dud than they were in 2017.

I don't think anyone can definiteively answer that....at least not the honest folks. In the absence of sufficient data, all we can so is observe relationships and make postulations that are tested as we go along.

Man, it triggers the shit out of me that so many SNE climo sites are AWOL for 1995-1996....my god, what a travesty.

So essentially solar max winter. What is the link to those graphics?

No, 2004-2005 was one of my favorite seasons...I had over 100", but I recalled it as near to slightly above normal, albeit very snowy in SNE.

2004-2005 was below average temps in Boston?

I'm not saying solar max is great...all things equal, we want INVO solar min, but there is more to it than that....look at 1970 and 2000....great analogs near solar max (not calling for a repeat).

I think October will be telling with respect to the MJO amplitude that you mentioned.

No argument at all. Agreed. 2022-2023 is a pretty good analog, but hopefully we will have a bit more luck this go around. The cool ENSO Walker Cell will be very formiddable, regardless of the ONI peak, which is reflected well by the RONI.

Its not the max you should be the most leery of, rather the 1-3 year stretch, thereafter....that is when the solar wind kicks up the geomagnetic energy, which bolsters the PV. Again, not to say we aren't more likely than not to have a strong PV anyway, but that post solar max even moreso.

If the solar cycle hasn't peaked yet, then that is good news for perhaps some intervals of high latitude blocking this coming winter. Notice I said "some intervals" and not a -NAO/AO season per se, as I know that may trigger @GaWx I get the westerly QBO/La Nina correlation and all...just saying, near solar max is less hostile towards periods of winter blocking than descending solar. I certaintly doesn't look good overall, so the argument becomes "just how bad does it look", which is when these factos come into play.

Makes the winter outlook easier. Funny you mention 2007 as an analog...I have mentioend that as a potential best case scenario for the NE...obviously toned down for NNE, as I don't expect 150" of snow just north of KCON.

May be tough to be very dry with all of the latent heat throughout the seas around the globe right now. If anything, it will be easier for the se and mid Atlantic, but the N stream being more prevalent makes it a taller task in the NE.

Not sure, maybe 2000-2001, 2002-2003 and 2014-2015? Only other possibility is maybe 2013-2014...

Well, drier winters are going to be harder to come by given CC... you have to also acknowledge that we are "due" for a cold winter, too then.

Its rough to tell...it gets calculated as we move forward in time and it won't always be apparent for several months when exactly the peak was. It's a fluid situation.

I'd say 4.5...still early, though...see what the tropics do.

I agree...it doesn't look good, but it will probably be better than last year.

I'll take the trade off for a greater frequency of larger storms, even if my the mean snowfall continues to decrease. Take last year of instance.....just over 34", but that one 19" event in January was awesome. What I couldn't stand is a winter comprised of several advisory events and maybe one low-end warning. I am fine with sacraficing a few 4" events if it nets me more big fish.

Looks like @MJO812started tracking the first snow threat after a long overnight shift.

You could get away with doing that while tracking about 95% of SNE severe threats.

Shame.......it used to be the correct forecast that paid the bills.

That "DirectWeather" on youtube or facebook is another weenie site....guys hypes everything and is usually wrong. Every winter looks severe over the NE.

Is he really? Jesus....opposite ENSO signal and complete opposite extra tropical Pacific regime....I would have that season as one of @raindancewx's "antilogs" TBH. I still say he knows better than this and is clearly selling out for clicks....either that, or JB stands for Joe Biden.

1959 and 1975 both featured near normal snowfall for this area the ensuing winter. Sign me up if I could lock that in.