40/70 Benchmark

I disagree....there is more skill involved in that. The snowfall rages, as fun as they are, is largely luck.

The high of being right coupled with the joy of the experience of the snow is awesome. Right....but its frustrating when you miss.

If its on Saturday, then fine...but I am out on any more nusiance varitety stuff during the week. I am at the point where it just like "get out of my face with that shit".

To be perfectly honest, the snowfall stuff has a lot of luck involved.....I honestly feel like my past couple of efforts have been better than some of my "hits" in terms of snowfall earlier in my "career". Last year, I think I hit just about every index for the DM period wintin .30.....but since it didn't snow, its viewed as a bust. Will need to wait for the end to know, but this year is along the same lines, though admittedly it will be much warmer than I had. However, its been much warmer than every issued outlook I have seen...even raindance. Sure, you will have people claiming to have "nailed" it pulling up a random quote from October, but I only count published efforts. Its difficult to forecast an extreme anomaly on a seasonal scale that are usually derived from a composite of analogs. This is why you don't normally see exceedingly low pressures on a day 10 ensemble mean.

I need 11.5" to catch last season.

I was/am/have been dead serious.

I could get 18" of snowfall, and this winter would still be just on par with the super, 1997-1998 non-winter el Nino. Think about that- A 30"-spot would put me on par with the 1982-1983 super el Nino...and this year has had more blocking than both. I need about 9" to catch 1973 and 7.5" for 2016.

I won't be suprised either way...on the one hand, this is the decade of what can do wrong, does. But on the other hand, I have a tough time buying that I finish under 40" in a basin-wide el Nino that is not prohibitively strong and featured a good deal of blocking.

At least they invest in the on field product, as misquided as the allocation of said resources may be. I'll trade you Henry for Cohen and an immense decadal snowfall defecit to be named later?

The initialization grid would consist of a dozen donuts and a grimey Mets cap.

Of course March will be the one month I nail with surgical precision....take that to the bank.

I have no issue with that particular edition of the weekly product, though..verification scroes not withstanding, that is reflective of my thoughts on March dating back to last fall. Winter is over after one more swing at the winter-blitz KU pinata, save a rogue bowling ball- Then its onto the draft and post seasonal eval in May for me.

Well, you only post them when they are good and he only posts them when they are like that.

Yea, definitely still there.

00z backed off of the 24th a bit in an asbolutely stunning move...

Good.

You said east based la nina like a month ago.... I can't imagine this hurricane season not being well above average, but who knows.....

+1.5" 29"

Yea, 1.5"...but apparently a local "max"...

Main reason why I am so frustrated of late....we have missed most of my identified windows, despite the patterns working out. I only see one significant, viable threat for this period before its over.

I don't see much of a block or 50/50....

Knowing the weather weenie population, that is a smaller leap of faith to a winter month being a torch.

Okay.....intrigued on 2/24....but I think winter is over there after and anything prior is a nuisance.

Well, considering every winter month for the past 3 years has been a raging inferno it's not a huge leap of faith.