40/70 Benchmark

It sucks you got boned 1/7 because I felt that was nice retribution for me....honestly one of the more enjoyable events of my life given that: 1) It over performed 2) I jack potted with 19" 3) First several inches were paste 4)I even had some OES and CF CJ for good measure...it was just an orgy of all of my fetishes wrapped into a neat bow.

If by some miricale things look good for 2/24 by next Friday (2/23), we should meet up and weenie out to send the season out with a hurrah.

It was clear on I 93...once I hit I 495, the snow cover is gone.

I'd go back to 2/6/78.

I think you would be suprised how many would be ready to embrace that-

I'm just waiting to see how 2/24 will fail.

It's been a rusty coat hanger.

I think CC is going to do to tropical activity what it is doing to snowfall...more feast or famine. We are seeing more lean snowfall seasons because temps are wamer, but we are also seeing more huge storms because there is more moisture. With respect to hurricanes, I believe a byproduct of the warmer PAC will be more wind shear down wind over the Atlantic basin, however, we will also be more prone to intense systems and uber active seasons when it is favorable.

What he says makes sense in theory and I respect the fact that he is open to something altering the regime. He is not at all a troll. Very bright and grounded guy. Having said all of that, I remain of the opinion that Mother Nature will find a way to balance the scale, so to speak, at some point.

So sorry, Brett.

Glad you posted that....my 1.5" measurement was an anomaly relative to surrounding areas, and this validates my ob, as I am right in that narrow corridor. That is exactly what it is...the narrow corridor between the dry air and the maritime influence that saw some accumulation.

Thoughts on "The Great Forecasting Debacle of 2024" Why The Forecast Failed The good news is that yesterday's storm was indeed short duration, as forecast, since it never even materialized for a significant portion of the region. And the most heavily populated portion at that, so needless to say it did not have the "high impact" that was forecast. However, it did for a portion of the region to the south, as illustrated below. But obviously this is in sharp contrast to the forecast, which called for a high impact over most of the region. The forecast largely verified over the southern half of the area, as the max amount of 15.5" was reported in Farmington, CT. But clearly the entire system evolved approximately 50 miles to the south of the forecast track, as evidenced by the very light amounts to the north. And its much easier to see why that was the case in hindsight than it was to forecast it. Northern Stream Kept Southern Stream at Bay The forecast for a major storm system across the area was predicated one the notion that the northern stream would begin to interact with the southern stream system just as it traversed the area. But the reality was that the northern disturbance remained separate until it they both bypassed the region, yet close enough for the northern energy to deflect the southern disturbance, which was responsible for the storm, a bit further to the south. This had two important ramifications that greatly reduced snowfall across the area. 1) The northern steam system remained discrete enough to avoid any phasing until east of the region, which consequently prevented it from gaining the latitude that results from the merging with the northern steam a one subsumes the other. This is why the snowfall shield was displaced about 50 miles to the south of forecast and it was not apparent that this would be the case until Monday afternoon. 2) The weaker precipitation as a result of the storm remaining to the south was the result of more meager atmospheric dynamics, which also meant a decreased ability for snowfall to overcome what was a marginal airmass near the east coast of Mass. This is why the snowfall forecast actually verified over the cape and islands, where the precipitation was as heavy as forecast. However, it meany hardly any snowfall accumulation at all across the Boston metropolitan area instead of the 8-12" and 6-10" range that was forecast. FINAL GRADE: F

"F" https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/02/thought-on-great-forecasting-debacle-of.html

Its easy to hide behind the vale of anonymitity in an impersonal mode of communication. But its tougher to look someone in the eye and be an ass because doing so is more unpleasant.

I may grab an inch.

Man, even @Allsnowweenied you on that..you know it was a low-blow.

Yea, its about cognitive skills...they are all intertwined and intra supportive (or not) of one another...for instance, distress tolerance is one cognitive skill that really factors into impulse control. If you have the ability to sit with an unpleasant thought/emotion and tolerate it, then you are better equipped to allow it to pass without acting on it. Less distress tolerance, then you will act out. Acceptance is another...the ability to accept an unpleasant reality and not waste energy ruminating on it. You can see how I could make a fortune running a weather weenie DTB clinic DBT packages all of these skills into a nice, neat little box with a bow on it.

Hopefully we get 2/24 to workout, or else I'll be spending my draft in an intensive, inpatient DBT clinic.

Well, we all have them...but some are better equipped to have the brain filter them out...myriad of different reasons why the defectis may exist, but in a general sense....IQ and mental illness due to genetics and lifestyle (addiction history lends itself to increased pulsivity).

I am totally guilty of it. Despite the insight, my emotions still get ahead of my brain....my postualation is that road rage and cyber bullying are positively correlated because its the same population that would have an issue with both...defecits in emotional regulation and impulse control. Social media/internet is probably not helping with incidence of road rage, among other negative outcomes/MH issues in society..hint, hint.

Its synonymous with driving in that respect...its easier to act like an ass on the road and behind the keyboard.

Model is kind of hit or miss....it put on an absolute clinic in that one 1/7 pasting up here, but it was sent to the glue factor yesterday. Funny thing is I probably would have bought the EURO bailing on yesterday if the HRRR hadn't nailed my 1/7 jackpot.

Good rule of life that hardly ever fails...there is always a reason why some try to push you down and its usually to prop themselves up. The truely healthy individuals do not feel the need to do that to anyone because they already value themselves.

Yes.

Its such a worthwhile endeavor because its such a great avenue for personal enrichment...regardless of outcome. Sure, you get some people that shit on you when you are wrong, but its normally 2 types of people and its inwardly driven. 1) People who also partake in the effort themselves, and are either very insecure and/or dissatisfied with a certain aspect(s) of their own lives and project that onto my effort instead of the mirror. 2) People who would like to engage in the effort themselves as the ultimate means of expression and undersanding of their life long passion. But alas, just can not get over the ambivalence barrier to committing to such an effort, and reconicle that fact by resenting the efforts of those who do so out resentment and subconcious envy.