40/70 Benchmark

I just want a warm March at this point....honestly. Aside from a rogue bowling ball and assuming 2/24 doesn't work out, its over... and Steve can quote that and hang it on his wall in the doggie kennel.

It's just a shit Pacific period...shame on me for misinterpreting that (again) and thinking we could still have a decent winter. I was wrong. But it's not because of the El Nino...people saying that are also wrong.

Plenty of strong El Ninos were decent, but unfortunately this wasn't one of them. Over the past several years it really hasn't mattered what ENSO has done because the extra tropical Pacific has sucked. Anyone who has a clue knows this wasn't a prototypical super El Nino with a huge GOA low...its sucked because we can't shake the west PAC warm pool that continues to favor Maritime forcing, regardless of ENSO.

30"

I can't believe this is my worst winter since 2012...I need 10.5" to catch last year and I am doubting it.

Yea, I won't be suprised at all if it just fails...intimated as much and got the 3rd degree for it.

The issue isn't whether it's coming so much as whether it's down the drain.

Probably right.

That is like you to the Lip N Hips song..just replace the snow with doogies.

2019-2020 was technically neutral and 2020-2021 wasn't that snowy in New England.

I'm just frustrated...its difficult because this place serves two purposes for me....an outlet to think and speak freely with emotion, as well as a place to disseminate forecast info and sometimes the two get get obfuscated. That is part or my motivation for the blog....to distinguish the two.

Yes, great week there. I'm glad because you guys have been boned past two seasons.

My exact verbiage was "sneaking suspicion"....the implication is, I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case and the fact is that I won't...I honestly don't think most here would. No personal attack; just an observation and you can do with it what you would like. Feel free to question my work this year because once again, there is plenty to question.....with respect to the actual work.

Even 12z in a more ambiguous manner.

I wonder if what is or is not happening next week is trying to focus more on that weekend, as opposed to much of anything on Friday....some hints of that.

I expressed frustration over a terrible season and guidance not reflecting much in the future. But I added the 24th in November. You have been increasingly contentious ever since being forced into retirement a few years back. Hopefully you find what you need to fill that void if the dogs aren't enough structure, but project it elsewhere.

Is there something wrong with issuing a seasonal forecast and then conveying doubt when it's clear that said forecast isn't working out as expected? I don't understand why that invalidates said effort. I'm sorry, dude...I don't feel a blizzard is a lock next week. But if it works out, it sure would help my seasonal outlook.

I put it out there and expect some shit on what I put out there...not some alternate outcome derived from your perception of my emotions. One is objective....one subjective. Figure that out, buttercup.

He never goes on record himself...he just likes to cherry pick quotes out of the open stream of consciousness that is a weather forum to try to twist the thoughts of those that do. I remember he made some effort with the "Ginxy Gale" stuff several years back, but gave it up to shovel doggie doo when the going got tough. More time to pass judgement, now I guess.

I not being disingenuous about anything. All of my thoughts are on record; I'm sorry you can't seem to wrap your mind around that, but that is your problem, not mine.

My hopes are pretty low...I have one foot in the draft room.

It won't.

I'm not sure why you seem to be so disoriented, but venting frustration over a dearth of model "cinema", as Tip would say, is not a forecast. Unlike you, I go to great lengths to ensure "the record" is very clear as pertains to my expectations. That said, gun to head, I don't think the 24th works out in terms of a large event.

No, I did not. This period has always been the last threat....its been my stance since the fall, dude. February 2024 Outlook February Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1977,1978,1980,1983,1995,2003,2007,2010(x2) The apex of intense high latitude blocking conjoins with frequent PNA flexes to mark the pinnacle of the season for winter weather fans across the eastern US, especially the mid Atlantic region. The coastal plain should be the focus, as more winter storm threats should follow the early month NESIS window. The culmination of the seasonal progression of El Niño results in a Modoki like configuration as the event decays. *****The recovery of the PV is accompanied by more prominent RNA to fuel modification and an early end to winter throughout most of the east late in the month and into early March. But not before another Archambault window from about February 11 through March 3, which may also place an emphasis on the Mid Atlantic.***** Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite (1951-2010): (1991-2010) The transition from canonical early season form to full-fledged Modoki is apparent. February is obviously the coldest month of the DM composite across the east. February 2024 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: Temperatures range from near normal to as much as 2F below across New England to as much as 2-4F below normal across the Mid Atlantic. 1991-2020: February 2024 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: