40/70 Benchmark

One thing I have learned to watch for is that bathtub off of Japan during outlook season. I have been doing this a decade, but still have so much to learn....really starting to expand my scope to a gloabl level when seeking out indicators.

I'm not sold on strong yet...it could be moderate. ..but with a very active tropical season I think the floor next year is maybe like 1998-1999, which is still a bit better than this year for most. Funny, you would think I had a great forecast by just eyballing the forecast H5 composite vs reality, but it just didn't translate.

I am reluctant to gve credit to folks who don't publish a seasonal effort, but I read enough from you and Bluewave to know that you asbolutey nailed the impact of that west PAC warm pool this year. Nice recognition of that. I will also credit snowman for the super El Nino call that eeked out, but I do not agee with him that this season was warm due to El Nino.

The way things have been going, we will. But since we didn't see an El Nino pattern this winter, hopefully not. Agreed on active....only question is will we top 200 IMO...which is a crucial number for me in terms of winter.

I am 10.5" shy of last year....but honestly, I would take this year due to Jan 7....keep the extra 10.5" that likely feel over 8 seperate 2-hour commutes in February and March.

Honestly, if I had realized the blocking would have been ABSOLUTELY trivial, then 1972-1973 would have been my top analog. I doubled up on it, as it was.

Completely shut out in December and under 3" in February here on the NH border. Un-fucking-real.

You know it was an abysmal El Nino when I have under 3" for the month of February.....that maybe the worst ever during an El Nino...even 1995 had a 12" event that first week. I never, in my most vivid nightmares, anticipated that.

Yea, I am moving on with one eye open for a rogue deal. Another failed effort on my part in terms of sensible results.

The following analysis of the top 10 ACE seasons suggests to me that a weak to moderate correlation of ACE to BOS/NYC snowfall the next cold season quite possibly exists, especially BOS, though ACE definitely shouldn’t be weighted heavily: Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season 1933 NYC: 52.0”; BOS: 62.7”; mod La Nina 2005 NYC: 40.0”; BOS: 39.9”; wk La Nina 1893 NYC: 39.2”; BOS: 64.0”; mod La Nina 1926 NYC: 22.3”; BOS: 41.1”; neutral 1995 NYC: 75.6”; BOS: 107.6”; mod La Nina 2004 NYC: 41.0”; BOS: 86.6”; wk El Niño 2017 NYC: 40.9”; BOS: 59.9”; mod La Niña 1950 NYC: 9.3”; BOS: 29.7”; neutral 1961 NYC: 18.1”; BOS: 44.7”; neutral 1998 NYC: 12.7”; BOS: 36.4”; strng La Nina AVG NYC for top 10 ACE: 35.1” vs 28.5” mean of all years since 1868-9 or 23% above mean snowfall 2 MAN (including record heaviest), 4 AN, 0 NN, 2 BN, 2 MBN; 60% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow —————————————- AVG BOS for top 10 ACE: 57.3” vs 43.1” mean all years since 1890-2 or 33% above mean snowfall 2 MAN (both in top 5), 3 AN, 4 NN, 1 BN, 0 MBN; 70% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow

Man, the atmosphere is just trolling us, at this point....its as though it could sense your interest in that potential, and abruptly withdrew. Interesting in a morbid sense....

January was bad luck, but there is no question that February shit the bed and December was worse than thought....at least AFAIC. Sure, we missed a nice window for a storm in February, too, but the month was just much less favorable than I had predicted in general. It was much worse than predicted and the bad luck carried over.

Yea, you give me an awful La Nina set up and an awful El Nino set up, then I'll take the shitty La Nina....at least there is a better bet of having cold near by. If its a crap El Nino, then the entire continent is furnaced. That said, I think we need to pray for an extremely active tropical season for any hope of avoiding another shit year.

One thing you won't see my do is chase a forecast...once I am confident, I will bail faster than @qg_omegaduring an impending blizzard.

Yea, look...I clearly have made some mistakes this season but its over, outside of ski country, barring some fluke bowling ball. Sure, it will cool off mid March....news flash; it won't remain 60 all month- I will look at this more in May, but in addition to most of the cold dumping on the other side of the globe and the loading west (again) when we have seen it....the favorable periods that I forsaw, although timed correctly, were just very fleeting...especially in February. I feel like my January call was okay, but December and February have been brutal. I think I will get March right.

I had never it considered until Raindance drew my attention to it the past couple of La Nina seasons....it seems to play a role in the alignment of the extra tropical atmosphere during the following winter in cold ENSO seasons.

Old man winter this season was like Michael Myers in "Halloween Ends".

Yes, I agree. ACE will need to be over 200 for me to even consider it.

And your exact verbiage was a "better" winter in the east...do me a favor....go though the high ACE years and show me a worse winter than this one... I'm not saying forecast forecast 1995-1996 due to high ACE La Nina....rather a fighting chance to avoid another anemic year.

That's the thing....an extraordinarily active tropical season coupled with a healthy La Nina is probably the key to disarming that marine heat wave, just as the super El Nino of 2016 aided in its configuration. But I get it...we're all human and its difficult to imagine a decent eastern winter right now.

How is it a wish cast? Silly accusation without anything to back it up. The data supports high ACE/better eastern winter correlation...likely due to how the how the extreme heat transport impacts the extra tropical Pacific. Even Raindance will tell you that.

.24" rainfall.

1995 is the perfect example of that.

Yea...or moderate is fine.

Well, like I said....especially in season, he doesn't offer alot of speculation on the extended range that exceeds simple data inrepretation....once the data changes, he will change...just admits he doesn't "know if its right". He is more a medium range guy.