40/70 Benchmark

Unreal....I had a good month of February, and guidance agreed at the start of the month, only to have it whiff.....now I have a torch March, which guidance originally agreed with and now of course it will be the best month. I need a new hobby...some low hanging fruit like stamp collecting.

Actually, I would take e 16 over it this go around.

I still think it ends up north of 1/7 and most of us are mainly rain, but we'll see.....

e48 seems to always be a good time...my fav member.

You can see why I mentoned the 1/6-7/2024 analog....that NE ridge retrograding north portending a system with that kind of snowfall distribution.

Something to watch, anyway. As skeptical as I am, there is a reason I haven't started a 2024-2025 thread yet.

I saw that...at this point, I'll believe it when I see it.

Hopefully I'm as accurate about that as I have been the better part of the past two seasons.

Its kind of a La Nina type look/gradient...which makes sense with MC forcing. I wouldn't expect much SOP at least and probably south of NH border.

Best case scenario for that system is a gradient similar to Jan 6-7 IMHO, but more likely further up and in than that one.

Obviously weather enthusiasts tend to show up more when interesting weather is modeled....is that an indictment? He was in the same camp I was, which was above normal temps and near normal snowfall....I would call that bombastic. That said, our respective forecasts have not panned out.

Much Milder Than Anticipated February Likely Signals End of Winter 2024 Western Pacific Plays Key Role in Very Warm February Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite: Which was reasonably well supported by guidance at the close of the month. But one key difference that is noted between the forecast charts above and what actually verified are the very low heights in the general vicinity of the Bering Sea. This is indicative of a very pronounced positive phase of the West Pacific Oscillation, which is a cousin of the East Pacific Oscillation that is frequently referenced here on Eastern Mass Weather. This is likely the primary reason why the the MJO spent much less time in phase 8 than forecast, which resulted in a much warmer northeastern CONUS than expected and significantly less high latitude blocking. Note the similarity between the +WPO loading map above with not only the previously posted February 2024 H5 chart, but also the pattern favored during phase 3 of the MJO during a warm ENSO month of February. This makes sense since the MJO is emerging in phase 3 after a very truncated passage through phase 8. Forecasts from Latter January were for the MJO to Spend Upwards of One Week in Phase 8 This is the proverbial "smoking gun" for the failed February forecasts and the reason why the forecast for normal to -2F February departures across the region: Ended up more in the vicinity of +3 to +5F range. The pattern did in fact turn cold with an opportunity for a major winter storm as advertised during the mid month flirtation with MJO phase 8, however, it only lasted one week due to the rapid translation of the MJO into the neutral circle. And once again the storm potential went unrealized. This is reflected by the drier than average monthly precipitation departure. This was not at all inconsistent with the precipitation anomaly forecast composite. 1991-2020: However, the very warm temperatures departures combined with the relative dearth of precipitation illustrated above to ensure much below average snowfall across most of the region. While the colder interlude of mid February was much shorter in duration and less remarkable than forecast, the warmer transition marked by a precipitous decline in the PNA near month's end in accordance with the emergence of the MJO into the Maritime continent appears right on schedule. Mild Month of March Spells an Early End to Winter March 2024 Outlook March Analogs: 1966,1973(X2),1977,1983,1987, 2007, 2010(X2), 2016 Here is the forecast H5 composite for the month of March: Versus Current Guidance: Monthly temperature departures should range from +2 to +4 across New England and the mid Atlantic. And this also has some support from the CFS guidance: Precipitation is expected to be near to slightly above normal across New England and near normal to slightly below average precipitation cross the mid Atlantic. The forecast philosophy is that the MJO should spend the vast majority of the month passing through the Maritime continent, with mild temperatures and significant snows confined to mostly northern New England. The first major test for this postulation should come during the second week of the month. Very Mild & Tranquil Start to March Before Storminess Week Two The first week of March is highly likely to be mild and quiet, as very low heights build into the west courtesy of a deep RNA, which will trigger the development of a strong ridge over the northeast CONUS. However, the second week offers major storm potential with cross-ensemble cluster support centered on Saturday-Sunday March 9th to 10th. Since the ridging that will encompass the northeast during the first week of the month is expected to translate northward into the higher latitudes, not unlike the January progression, guidance currently indicates some winter storm risk for the region. However, climatology (nearing mid March) coupled with the progression of the MJO into the Maritime continent (phase 4 or 5) dictates that the very coldest outcome would likely yield significant impacts relegated to the same regions that received heavy snows during the January 7th event (interior north and west of Boston). However, the far more likely outcome given the anticipated progression for the MJO is that this particular event will be focused further inland, higher in elevation and to the north, closer to the cold air source.

Woof: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/02/much-milder-than-anticipated-february.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/02/much-milder-than-anticipated-february.html

Ensembles looks pretty good for that system, but with the MJO in decent amplitude at phase 4-5, I do not buy it at this time.

Even the CFS has checked out on this season, at this point.

Any idea why I can't access the CFS for March on Tropical tidbits right now?

As usual, thread title was longer than the list of damage and impacted power customers.

As I am sure both of you understand, asserting that a particular season is a good analog does not imply that it will be an exact replica in any, never mind every facet. I stand by my claim that that season is a very viable analog, especially for March.

Do you have one for the monthly values?

Not at all...I doubled up on 1973 for March in my Outlook from November. March Analogs: 1966,1973(X2),1977,1983,1987, 2007, 2010(X2), 2016

Anyone have a good link for WPO data? This date on this site doesn't seem to be avilable right now... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/wp.shtml

I lost my last patch of snowpack last night....should lose the last of the bankings on the driveway today.

Hopefully they kick that can to December-