40/70 Benchmark

No, it was never supposed to be particularly cold, but not as warm as it was. The modeled progression was significantly more favorable.

The call for the storm this weekend worked out fine. the second week offers major storm potential with cross-ensemble cluster support centered on Saturday-Sunday March 9th to 10th. Since the ridging that will encompass the northeast during the first week of the month is expected to translate northward into the higher latitudes, not unlike the January progression, guidance currently indicates some winter storm risk for the region. However, climatology (nearing mid March) coupled with the progression of the MJO into the Maritime continent (phase 4 or 5) dictates that the very coldest outcome would likely yield significant impacts relegated to the same regions that received heavy snows during the January 7th event (interior north and west of Boston). However, the far more likely outcome given the anticipated progression for the MJO is that this particular event will be focused further inland, higher in elevation and to the north, closer to the cold air source.

It was modeled as a very wintry month, and it verified as a wintry week.

Dude, the favorable stretch was not advertised as one week...it verified as such.

I agree the MJO isn't everything, but given the tendency of the past several years to exert Maritime influence at least excuse imaginable, its tough to envision that signal being muted. I don't see why that trend would reverse now when it hasn't all season long....the west PAC remains ablaze.

I did.

Good luck.

Totally agree. Its such a wet pattern that I can totally see a relative absence of "nice" weather, yet a string of days with relatively stagnant temps so that the high daily mins drive up the monthly departure, like January 2021. There are alot of those sneaky warm stretches during the CC era.

We maritally project?

Yea, you defintely want things to come together right during that season-

We have seen that modeled a few times this season and its never been completely successful....it was a complete failure in December and February. I am going to go ahead and call BS on that once again considering that the MJO is going to be traversing the MC at a decent amplitude. Sure, maybe just an ass-like period and not an all out torch, but remember....we can end up with a solidly above average month via just mild daily mins, too.

.25" on the day today.

There is the elusive textbook -WPO we have been chasing the better part of the last several years.

Kind of like the AO/NAO.

You have to just check out of weather....Yea, I still kind have one foot in for now, but I'm no longer invested. I'm in recovery from weather Dopamine addiction for about the next 9 months, with perhaps a few tropical relapses along the way.

I am fine with it....stop wasting my time writing about snow that never falls. At least now, as shitty as the weather is, I already know it won't snow.

No rush, I have no reason to view it.

Welcome to the board.

Thing is no one is really good at it...sure, there are some that are better than I am, but its a work in progress for everyone. The mystique behind just how elusive skill in this capacity is coupled with an intense passion for snow makes it immensely alluring and difficult to resist.

Yea, defintely not a great year.

Its obvious in the data that the Pacific let up a bit in January relative to December and February, which allowed for a portion of the region to cash in. I know some did in February, as well, but some sports got near 30" in January.....but that is more for another thread.