40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I agree.....but I just don't see it changing until that PAC configuration shakes up. Some feel as though it won't...I am not in the camp. TBH, it isn't shtting on my personal outlook results that irritates me so much as being resigned to the fact that long range efforts in general will always be futile. I don't believe that to be the case....will it be within our lifetime that its gets figured out? Probably not....

Great question....because regardless of ENSO state, or what the arctic is doing, the forcing has remained predominately pinned over the MC and that has been informative. But you are right....its not just one thing and eventually it will be something else....but for now, that is the driver.

Maybe enough to bury a weenie

Oh, you are getting that from weathermodels.com....I'm on the Prism site...

It did suck. lol The thing is that it isn't diffiuclt to see what has been hurting us....regardless of what the polar domain has done, the last several winters have sucked. Its because of the west PAC warmth stagnating the forcing in the MC, regardless of ENSO. If that changes, then sure...time to reconsider. But if that does not change and we have a robust Modoki La Nina upon us, then its not as ambiguous as you imply. Your use of the term "nonsense" is what is nonsensical, since there is pretty iron clad science behind how the impact that MC forcing has on our region and the relationship between the polar domain and the descending phase of the solar cycle, which is where we are headed. The Pacific may change, but the solar cycle will not.

I'm not sure how many times you want me to say I was wrong.....sucked, suck, stink, stank, stunk. The issue with you is that your thought process is so reductive that you can't see the forest through the trees....you throw a temper tantrum and disparage any long range efforts when they run contrary to snow/cold. The reason why I feel the next few years will suck is the same reason my past 2 outlooks have sucked...its because of what is going on in the west PAC. I do think it will eventually change, but not a for a few years.

Flooding.

Having trouble finding the anomaly maps on that site...

This is true, but to be fair, so isn't this....

It defitely requires an adjustment that I have struggled to make.

You get so defensive when someone doesn't milk your snowman prostate.

For the most part, a very mild and snowless December in La Niña is a very bad sign.

Not me....I was out over a month ago. My overall outlook was a fail, but I was never in on a big ending.

I agree in an absolute sense....ie biased warmer everywhere. However, where I think the debate is more fervent is with respect to why the eastern CONUS has been getting boned so much more than the west. I am not sold on that imbalance being entirely a product of CC, whereas the general background warming is. I still believe the imblanace is more of a cyclical phenomenon.

I think most would sign for that winter right now given the shit we have been force-fed of late.

Odds are we will see a flatter Aleutian ridge, which isn't so great. The key in a Modoki La Nina is to keep it weak, which looks unlikely.

Thing is if Canada is cold, which is more likely in a La Nina, then you can get lucky due to the shape/orientation of the PV...a year like 2007-2008 should have sucked on paper. But tough to predict something like that....

Yea, even the few times there is some cold around, it just never links up.

That said, I would be suprised if next season is good...I could see somehow avoiding a ratter with a bit of luck, which we are "due" for.

You laugh, but honestly...past couple I felt would be somewhat mild with climo like snowfall and they have been brutal.

Well, early sentiment is for a healthy Modoki La Nina working in conjunction with a +QBO/descending solar...doesn't take a CC zealot to know to temper expectations. We probably have about 3-4 more bleh-ish seasons before we catch a break in the latter half of the 2020s is my guess.....probably at least one big season as the Pacific changes and we near solar min. Yes, I understand what a shot in the dark that speculation is....again, "just my (educated) 'guess' ". We really need a decent season fast because its become increasingly exhasting around this place....you need so many qualifiers so someone doesn't bite your head off.

I think there are pretty low expectations for next season.

Glad I checked out mid Feb. Happy "tracking"...

Today was nasty...only topped out at 42

My last one was a Davis...tried Ambient this go around and its worth it because its much, much cheaper, more user friendly and not a huge downgrade in terms of accuracy.