40/70 Benchmark

In the eyes of Tip, the Hadley Cell is responsible for everything...from climate change to sperm subsidnce (joke, John....not doubting CC)

Yep. The ONI is less and less important, anyway as the globe continues to warm.

Doubt that, but we shall see.

Yes, same page. Very fair and reasonable take.

We have certainly been seeing the crap patterns that they were last decade...save for the dry. Their awful winters were also very dry, but our's have just been warm.

Well, the Canadian was showing precip patterns that matched with phase 6 last year. I remember raindance referencing that as supportive for his outlook, so I agree that it will be important to watch that as we get closer. Odds are this run of futility will end when no one expects it to.

Kudos to you on that. I completely misinterpreted what the Pacific warm pool meant and how it would relate to el Nino.

I agree with this. I feel like we should enter a very favorable period around the turn of the decade due to the solar min and potential end of the long term -PDO phase working to trigger some positive regression. But if we are still in this horrid stretch by the early 2030's, then something is probably up.

Who knows, maybe coupling with tremendous Atlantic activity changes things. That mega-El Nino also had something to do with arranging this configuration IMO. Bottom line is I don't expect this configuration to be permanent and its demise will likely be of tropical origin. I know you are heading towards it being permanent.

That has been my theory on how the earth will correct that persistent west PAC warm pool.

2022 and 1998 are on my early list.

Cool. May as well get it out of the way this year when we are screwed, regardless.

That said, clearly I agree a strong PV is favored...just not sure how large of a factor any eruptions will be.

It actually got down to 105MPH upon reneging from PR, but the GS juiced it up prior to US LF.

Not necessarily....not all volcanic eruptions are created equal...depends on where it was, how strong, what was emitted, etc..

I feel like this insanely warm MDR is going to lead to some Hugo type evolutions, whereas they get really intense really fast and far to the east....thus while peak intensity in terms of wind is out over the fish, we end up with some dreadful storm surges from land falling, expansive post EWRC systems. This is why I actually feel like we may not see the barrage on intense landfall in terms of max sustained winds that some may expect, but as we know the surge is the most dangerous aspect. And of course, always in the look out for home-brew systems that can spin up fast at close range...those could threaten with particularly intense landfalls in terms of wind.

I don't think we have had a rock-bottom dreadful La Nina winter on the heels of a hyper active tropical season, so there is that. I think the floor this year is a 1999-1999, 2005-2006 (that one Feb event was a fluke) type of season, but the envelop of potential outcomes is much more densely clustered near the floor than the ceiling, if that makes sense...

IDK about "very good", but odds are it will be somewhat better.

Kind of like the ACE during La Nina. Not that it matters, but I don't think he is as clueless as he appears. I just think he became enslaved by capitalism so much that he began forecasting backwards and seeking out data to support a preconceived notion out of deference to the all mighty dollar.

I bought into that to a degree...not due to JB....I don't even read him. In a way, it was the same trap that I fell into this year, but at least now I realize it. Getting things wrong and progress are not mutually exclusive. Its a lack on insight into what led one astray that ultimately precludes progress, which is why refusal to admit error is so detrimental.

I think as continue to see more frequent anomalous nodes of warmth throughout the planet as a byproduct of CC, we will also continue to see drastic shifts like this that are more preavlent than in the past. This is because not only will the need for the plaent to budget for and redistribute said heat nodes impact the atmosphere, but we will also see compensatory regimes several years or even decades down the line. This will lead to a lot of knee-jerk conclusions among scientists and this is what we are already witnessing.

Right. Some think it may be permanent, but I find that hard to believe.....the planet will find some mechanism to achieve balance IMHO. If we're being honest, this West Pac warm pool is the vehicle through which the globe is balancing after all of those "warm blob" seasons last decade, when the west had a huge muti-year drought. Like I have said, still paying for 2014-2015 back this way. And yes...I still feel like it was worth it.

Totally agree. It was moderate all things considered...the thing is that the forces competing with El Nino to negate its influence to that of a moderate event also conspired to ruin winter in the east, so we didn't benefit from it. This is why some of the mega-el nino crowd is misguidededly claiming victory. This is the crux of why I think @raindancewx has had so much success of late.....he incorporates what is actually happening around the globe so heavily into his outlooks that he is less likely to be run astray by any one factor such as ENSO, etc. He could anticipate that while El Nino would not be as prominent a driver as many had figured, the weather around the globe was still behaving in a manner consistent with East coast dud-seasons. This will become an increasingly crucial aspect of seasonal forecasting as CC continues to assert itself, thus altering the interaction of the myriad of global factors that we consider. Some really prescient techniques on his part. We need to not stop focusing so much on what the global atmosphere is saying to us and start focusing more on what its actually doing. Its like the old addage with respect to people..."actions speak louder than words"...we really need to adhere to this within the context of seasonal forecasting during an expedited rate of CC. What the globe is saying is often no longer consistent with its actions and seasonal forecasters need to take heed and adapt to this reality. I think I am on the right track, but obviously have a lot to learn and being weak with respect to statistics makes it a taller task for me.

This in conjunction with the solar min is why I feel like we will play catch up in terms up seasonal snowfall along the east coast near the turn of the decade.

I think you could say 1998....normally a major ENSO event will help to trigger a multi decadal shift like that. We had the 1972 major El Nino leading that shift and the 1998 super El Nino later in the 90s. I feel like this -PDO cycle will end late this decade. I know some of the space weather/solar guys feel the same way.