40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Seeing a pretty definitive trend on guidance to hook this right just prior to LF, which may be a (relative) saving grace for TB in terms of surge.
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I think a 30mb rise in 12 hours is pretty steep....about the best one can hope for given how pristine the antecedent structure was, as others have mentioned. However, it was so intense to begin with that this still leaves us with a remarkably intense system, unfortunately....and one that is more expansive and capable of generating deadly surge, as well as a wider envelope of power-disrupting winds.
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That is a relatively large eye now...yikes. I wouldn't expect the pressure to come up to much more with that look.....up about 30mb in 12 hours from peak, which is to be expected from an EWRC in a system with a 3.5mi wide eye. JMO, but I don't think the Yucatan played much if any role in the weakening...it was just about all internally driven.
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This is simply due to the angle of approach.
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Yea, I have seen it a few times, but it is rare...I want to say that Dorian did it? Andrew did it.
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Yea, that is the window that I honed in on when I analyzed it on Saturday..I didn't expect it to pull a Wilma today.
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You guys are quick...meant '20..typo
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Unreal. I can't believe what went on today...colleague of mine made the astute observation using an altimetry of ocean currents that Milton may have availed itself of Helene's upwelling by feasting on very warm waters that wrapped around the Yucatan. Final Call tomorrow.
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2024-2025 La Nina
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Looks like raindance deleted his x account. Not sure if he is going to be posting his outlook as planned this week. -
Its about exactly Andrew's intensity.
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Telling you bro, Clearwater.
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This is Opal deja vu from that early October morning....same time frame, too.
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A tighter gradient will be more disrupted by a redistribution of the windfield than a more broad gradient.
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Granted its not going to make it as far north, but Milton reminds me of Opal....small system that bombed out to 150mph in the Bay of Campeche before rocketing NE and striking the panhandle as a cat 3 (125mph) just about exactly 29 years ago. I remember Cantore was in the studio for that one.
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Every system has a unique interaction with the surrounding envt. due to size and structural nuances....part of the reason why tropical systems are so difficult to forecast.
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My money is on over of just north, but hopefully not.
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Yea, but I would take anything to disrupt the current momentum....you never know when the core of these small systems get disrupted.
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Of course....definite chance at this range and especially given the angle of approach.
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If I were in Tampa, I would be patently praying this barrels into the Yucatan.
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I never consider globals in terms of absolute intensity.....just intensity trends. I think small, RI systems like this are especially ill suited to be resolved by globals. But I get your point....this is faster deveoping than anyone thought or any guidance modeled.
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Well, globals obviously don't have the type of resolution for that, but I think some of these hurricane models are overboard, though 920s is certainly feasible.
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Wow, I didn't think the core would get organized that quickly...
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The weakening on the hurricane models was always exageratred as was the max intensity.
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Yea, I hate those charts...never use them....raw TCHP is one thing, but I hate MPI products.
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Yea....920s sounds about right.
