Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    74,733

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Really hope I am wrong about this one, but my initial hunch offers up a grave scenario for Tampa-St. Pete. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/intensifying-tropical-storm-milton.html
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the CANSIPS is probably too far south with the cold, but the CFS seems more realistic...its similar to the EURO...maybe a touch colder.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is good consensus on a pretty stout -WPO pattern in the seasonal mean.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    CFS
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think something like 2021-2022 maybe okay...but we aren't getting the amplification out west that we did in 2022.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    New Euro is a nod to the CFS/CANSIPS camp.....any other portrayal is due to a bias and/or delusion.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay...time to get to work. Wow.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it matters.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. Absolutely this.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last season was very similar to 1972-1973 with the strong el Nini in the midst of a cold phase of the Pacific. Agreed. Still warm, but better than last year.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    NE coast has actually been one of the few areas that have seen an increase in average annual snowfall over the last 50 years...the warm ocean hasn't been all bad news.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hope it gets uber-strong this month.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it closed off at like the latitude of Virginia...
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that event was better south of New England because H5 closed off so early and far to the south...it was an occluded, shredded mess when it got up here...amounts much over 12" were scarce.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean north of Boston.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am of the opinion that this season will behave in a manner that is consistent with La Nina, however, La Nina will not be the primary driver...if that makes sense.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    It has up here...perhaps not down there...but that is how it goes. Everything went right last decade, so it evens out.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...until the pattern stops persisting. Nobody has it all figured out.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    The trough dug so far to the south that it remained progressive and occluded fast.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    The issue with the bomb cyclone is that it occluded so far to the south...not that it was too far east.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I would say from about the latitude of Providence, RI and points southward. Lot easier to BS your way to a respectable season once you get into N RI/CT and especially the MA pike.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree...and I will take that. I would rather have a few lean years, as much as I bitch, when there is more time to focus on work and family, then be pinned to the blog for a string of 3"ers. I go all in on those storms so save it for the biggies.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree completely. However, I thinkl the difficulty getting to within 25% of average is more applicable the further south one is.....that is not difficult in the north.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, we are all human.....I feel like he could untlimately be exposed for becoming a bit too reliant upon persistence forecasting, which is esstneitally what happened to me at the turn of the decade. Nobody is immune to it.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it has impacted the PDO page.
×
×
  • Create New...