40/70 Benchmark

I think I'm going to hold off on doing the extra tropical Pacific until latter Septmeber or early October. I was going to do it next week, but I want to get a better idea of where the ACE is headed because that may really inform how much poleward Aleutian ridging we get.

I agree with your assessment.....basin-wide La Nina is normally a coin-flip with respect to poleward ridging....some act as east-based, some as Modoki with flat ridges. But I will say that we are increasingly "due" for something....anything to break "right". This would be my seventh consecutrive below average snowfall season....have to go back to 2017-2018 for a solidly above average season or even anything approaching normal.

Oh yea-I would take the over on normal temps here...which is why I said I would take that.

I would take that....my spot would probably do okay. If you run the temp departures for my polar analog composite, it looks a lot like that.

Look at my link. .its in there

Here is my preliminary work on the polar domain, which lines up exceedingly and uncannily well with Chuck's NAO formula currently, which was gratifying given its past success. NOTE: THIS IS NOT A WINTER FORECAST COMPOSITE....it's just for the polar domain, so no need to point out years like 2016, which featured a +PDO....that will not be viewed as an extra tropical Pacific analog. The focus for this is the AO/NAO domain. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html

I found some of your old data looking in one of my seasonal outlooks in which I referenced it. Utilizing North Atlantic SSTs During Summer as an NAO Predictor for Cold Season Perhaps one of the most skilled forecasters on a forum replete with talented meteorologists and hobbyists alike, in americanwx.com, "StormchaserChuck", now known as "UniversesBelowNormal", devised a formula over a decade ago that predicts the mean aggregate state of the NAO for the ensuing winter using the SSTs in an area of the north Atlantic. This methodology is strongly endorsed as one of the more accurate predictors available for the mean state of the winter NAO. In fact, had Eastern Mass Weather considered it last season, the outlook would have been much more successful. The following methodology is a wonderful illustration of the delayed feedback between sea and air that represents the very essence of the elaborate system of atmospheric oscillations that is so often referenced. "In 2006 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2006-2007 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was the 7th warmest). Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact: 2018-19: +NAO signal/+NAO winter....Verified 2017-18: Strong -NAO signal/+NAO Winter....Failure to Verify 2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter .. Verified 2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Verified 2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Failure to Verify 2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Verified 2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Verified 2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Null 2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Verified 2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Verified 2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Verified 2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Failure to Verify 2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Verified 2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Verified

Also on my short list.

Regardless of what the ONI implies, it will not be weak.

Not on my agenda, no

Exactly what I have been getting at....much like mathamatics, its not about the final solution but hot it is arrived at that matters.

Someone needs to mess with this quote...I almost want to do it myself.

I am pretty confident we are in a fairly devastating several weeks as a nation due to tropical impacts....just for @ineedsnowI have been hard on him...gotta throw that dog a weenie.

What little I have looked at for this next system is pretty ominous for SE US...gonna be either a se US hit or OTS.

I haven't looked at this next system really yet...I'm doing some polar domain stuff for the winter right now, but will be shifting gears shortly. Gonna be a busy week coming up...heavy, heavy blogs.

Yea, I remember the exchange....we said it wasn't of interest because it was either OTS, or up the coast via an inland route....just so happens that it ended up being the latter. The point was that there was no scenario on the table that had the system being pulled up quickly just off of the coast. And this was correct...I'm not sure what he is trying to claim.

Seasons with a large discrepancy between the ONI and RONI underscrore the importance of looking at the hemispheric landscape beyond ENSO.

Yup. High up on my list.

I know what you meant, I was just adding to it.

Those years arrive at those RONI values in a far different manner, though.

Yes and that is the part I am most hopefully about changing this season. I don't expect the hemisphere to be much different.

Absolutely. This is why the lower MEI and RONI relative to the ONI were actually symbolic of a fatal hemispheric issue for NE winter enthusiasts last season.

What I didn't understand was that last year, the weaker coupling of El Nino with the atmosphere was merely a reflection of the very prevalent cool ENSO background, which was/is evident by the west PAC being ablaze. This made the positioning of the el Nino (Modoki scale) largely irrelevent because the forcing was pinned to the MC, regardless. However, in years like 1965 and 1957 and 2009, since we didn't have the west PAC inferno, the weaker coupling of el Nino to the atmosphere was indeed indicative of a weaker warm ENSO walker cell, which truely was more redolent of a modoki and thus favorable for NE cold and snow. What it comes down to is we must not only determine the intensity of El Nino, but if it is weaker, WHY is it weaker.....figure out which other players in the atmosphere are competing with it, how much proxy they will have and how the assertion of said factors will manifest in the configuration of the overall pattern around the hemisphere. The other major players on the field in 2009 and 1957 were an exceptionably favorable extra tropical Pacific and arctic/atlantic. 1965 featured a very favorable arctic/atlantic, which was more helpful to NE cold/snow interests in the face of a hostile extra tropicl Pacific without the immense degree of west PAC warmth. We have been far too reductive in our analysis of ENSO and the changing climate is exposing that more than ever before. Bluewave has been ahead of his time amongst mainstream meteorological circles.

Yes, I correctly pointed out all of that in last season's outlook, complete with schematics, but again....totally screwed the pooch on what impact it would have. Frustratingly educational.