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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Per ONI, I agree....but that isn't what's important.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe a boring debate season in the lead up to winter because we are all pretty much on the same page.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I really feel as though its going to be squeezed into one big month if we are to a see a decent winter this season.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    And if we are to do that again, it would probably be during this predominate cold phase of the Pacific.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't really think that it matters, as the hemisphere has been so locked into cool ENSO mode over the course of the last several years.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I really liked that blog, but am starting to view it with a great deal of skepticism.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have noticed that. My interpretation of this essentially corrborates my early findings, which is that while a cold ENSO/solar max/west QBO combo may favor a strong PV, it doesn't ensure the most potent one on record.....and we could easily still have one month that featues an abundance of high latitude blocking in the mean. The season as a whole will almost assuredly feature a +NAO and probably even a +AO.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, that is certainly a different take...first I have heard of La Nina/Solar Max/West QBO combination being favorable for SSWs. @snowman19Don't shoot the messenger...just posting. Not my thoughts lol https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-data-weak-polar-vortex-usa-winter-2024-2025-fa/
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you can go ahead and brazenly take the leap of faith to extend that through the winter...gonna go wayyyy out on a limb.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't say that yet...the mean doesn't look pretty, but we may have a window or two.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, QBO definitely has limited utility...which is a point I was making in that write up if you read between the lines.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Quick ENSO update and some early musings on where we may be headed this winter. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/06/moderate-impact-la-nina-remains-likely.html
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nah, I just like to view it in its entirety because I think its ill advised to only consider one snap shot of band of winds that snakes through the entirety of the tropical Strat.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    You have that for 50mb?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Does anyone have the link for QBO data back to 1950? I'm having trouble finding it...I keep coming up with back to 1979.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree 100%.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everything is a pretty warm pattern when anomalies are derived from 30 year climo periods lol
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That maybe just a wavelength issue, given its the summer...the relatioinships/teleconnections don't necessarily have the same impact.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just for perspective and proper context.....I'm not arguing for a big winter...just trying to keep an open mind and see a pathway to something other than a total dud.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its a no-brainer there will be a +QBO, as were the years I mentioned.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Solar may not be a death-knell, though because we are still a year off from the big solar wind/geomagnetic spike, which lags solar max by a year or two. That is more for 2025-2026.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    First real long look at things today and 2020 is another potential path to avoiding a total dud IMO....see some similarities...but solar is a mismatch, so maybe less blocking. QBO and RONI/basin-wide mod Nina look like good matches.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    FWIW, it looks like the best QBO matches dating back to 1979 as of May are 2020 and 2022. 2010 isn't bad either, but none of these are great solar matches.
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