40/70 Benchmark

Even that one...NDB NW of I95.

Right....but take the most significant storm out of any season and it alters the perception of it rather dramatically...tropics or winter.

Early March is absolutely not too late for the northeast.

It can take up to a month..certainly not 2. It didn't come too late...it took place in early March. It didn't work out because of the huge RNA that occurred simultaneously.

I was gonna say....Bluewave is from NYC....you know summer is on the way out when Keven migrates south to other subforms to gather ammo against seasonal change.

Still my favorite hurricane....never forget pulling my first all nighter for a hurricane as an 11 year old...you know it was nuts when TWC skipped the usual dead-time programming from 2-5am when they keep recycling the 1am programming.

We are still so far ahead of normal with ACE, though....I feel like this is analogous to when people bitch about being caught in a subsidence slot for a few hours during blizzards only to forget about it 4 hours later when they pull 3"/hr. I mean, we probably aren't catching 2005, but not worried about it falling short of hyperactive at this point. Guess we settle for 20" instead of 30"-

I made it pretty clear here why solar max/W QBO/cool ENSO is a pretty good bet for late blocking. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html Again, that does NOT necessarily mean big snow and cold to the east coast..as we saw in March 2023. This not the worst composite for blocking...descending solar is.

1999 and 2022 are two of the best analogs IMO.

La Nina +QBO and active solar favors late blocking, which is why I predicted March 2023 well, despite it not working out for the coast.

Solidly, sure..Chuck and I came up with around .50 DM....his may trend up to about .75, though...

Obviously the Pacific is more important, so it could still be very mild, regardless of the NAO.

I don't think it's going to be an extremely positive NAO season, which is backed up by @Stormchaserchuck1's subsurface formula.

Happy 32nd birthday, Andrew!

Just 2000? Note sure about 1951 and 1962 in terms of QBO and solar...anyway, I don't expect a huge winter, regardless.

Social media is like an epidemic amongst the met community...so many affected.

You could also just burn my last two outlooks.....given the length, they should keep you warm.

Love that, but I think we need to treat any long range cold with skepticism this day and age.

I wonder if the ACE may also tie into that October MJO amplitude, as liberty suggested. That composite looks pretty -WPO to me, but also mainly -QBO.

There are all of the "extremely active" (ACE) La Nina seasons since 1950...can see the bouts of poleward Aleutian ridging and -NAO that I alluded to in my write up:

BTW, its still very active per ACE...bit of a misconception in relation to that. 2024 Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE] Basin Current YTD Normal YTD % of Normal YTD Yearly Climo* 2023** Northern Hemisphere 136.2100 210 64% 575 648 Western N Pacific 50.625 114 44% 298 266 Eastern + Cent N Pac 26.9875 66 40% 132 165 North Atlantic 56.31 21 268% 122 146 North Indian 2.2875 7 32% 23 60 Southern Hemisphere 169.958 209 81% 205 244 Global 269.3030 382 70% 780 881 *Yearly climatology from historical 1991-2020 Tropical cyclone best track datasets

I think a big ACE value correlated to more poleward Aleutian ridging.

I think the only wild card for mid season is Bluewave's October MJO rule...if the MJO isn't amplifed in October, then we roast mid winter.

I think the early season will be more Pacfic driven..ie Aleutian ridging and -EPO/WPO, though the PV shouldn't be too stout....then mid season it goes very warm with less of an RNA before perhaps blocking/big RNA late season.

Shake it up