40/70 Benchmark

It doesn't look great to me.

The issue is that the continued dry air entrainment, although decreasing, is still definitely present at this hour...now into the early PM. That dry air needs to be entirely washed out of the core so that convection in association with the CDO can intensify and expand......this is just when we will begin to see a more concerted pressure drop. And THEN, the circulation will need to tighten for the aforementioned processes to translate to significantly increased max sustained winds and its going to take the better part of the 15 hours or so that it has remaining to accomplish this. The system cannot fully avail itself of even the most pristine atmospheric conditions until this is accomplished in its entirety. This is why I like the current NHC forecast, which is in line with my call for a 95 MPH landfall intensity as a cat 1 hurricane.

I don't agree with your analysis at all. Window for 3, albeit always only ajar a hair, is now just about closed and the window for cat 2 is closing. But we shall see-

Define "exploding"..... don't see this thing becoming a major, the core remains fairly broad and disorganized....has that post EWRC "skunked" appeal to me....doubt landfall greater than cat 1.

I think this has the right idea.

Slight changes from Thursday night....I adjusted locale slightly NE from S Padre Island to Matagorda and held intensity at 95 MPH.

Just gonna post my whole Final stab at this since there isn't much traffic at this hour....make sit easy for you guys to scan my dribble. Hopefully some compelling material. Final Call for Hurricane Beryl's Monday AM Strike on Texas Coast Confidence in Track & Even Intensity Increased Current Status: Currently as of 2:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Beryl is centered approximately 275 miles SE of Corpus Christ, Texas and has slowed slightly while veering more towards the NW at 13 MPH. Beryl remains rather disorganized with maximum sustained winds of 60 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 995 MB. However, it is important to note that this pressure is down from a peak of 1001 MB when the system exited the northern coast of the Yucatan early this morning, which means that some slow organization has been occurring during Saturday as anticipated. Track Forecast Rationale: The general forecast philosophy from First Call issued on Friday night is relatively unchanged, as the Eastern Mass Weather expectation that guidance was significantly too far to the southwest and would adjust significantly to the northeast with a faster recurve has proven correct. There is now a much stronger consensus on the future track of Beryl. In fact, there has been such an aggressive move in the consensus that the Final Eastern Mass Weather forecast track will even need to be adjusted slightly further up the Texas Coast from a First Call in the vicinity of a south Padre Island, TX landfall. These are relatively minor cosmetic changes have to do with the degree of trough interaction in the grand scheme of things, but are of course crucial for those living along the Texas coast. In addition to a slightly faster recurve and turn to the north and eventually northeast, one potential ramification of Beryl's interaction with trough actually has more to do with its ultimate intensity at the time of landfall. Intensity Forecast Rationale: Despite a round of intensification late Thursday and Thursday evening, the Eastern Mass Weather expectation that Beryl would begin a more concerted round of weakening due to an increase in wind shear prior to landfall near Cozumel early Friday proved correct. And while the official landfall intensity reflected 110 MPH max sustained winds (975 MB minimum central pressure), the early returns from reports around the area is that they were likely even less. Beryl has since weakened to a tropical storm with 60 MPH sustained winds as anticipated and has only slowly reorganized during the day on Saturday, which was also part of the forecast due to a badly disrupted core. This is due to both a combination of decreasing southern shear around the western periphery of the departing ridge to the system's west. And a drier air that continues being entrained into the redeveloping core of Beryl. However, as the system moves to the northwest and the ridge in the opposite direction, further away to the east, shear will continue to decrease. This will give way to light diffluent flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere in advance of the approaching trough that will begin to augment poleward outflow Simultaneously, drier air will begin being worked out away from the rapidly evolving core as Sunday morning progresses. It is at this point that Beryl will also begin traversing even warmer sea surface temperatures by midday Sunday en route to the Texas coast. Although the speed of movement is in the process of slowing somewhat, it should be enough to promote a great deal of upwelling, especially considering that Beryl will not be a particularly intense cyclone. Regardless, TCHP is certainly supportive of at least a minimal hurricane on approach to the coast. Given what will evolve into a nearly ideal environment for intensification during the final 12-18 hours prior to landfall, Beryl should be a healthy and rapidly intensifying hurricane when it makes landfall around 6 AM on Monday morning. The only saving grace for Texas in terms of a potential major hurricane strike will be time. Final Call: While the official forecast landfall intensity is 95 MPH and reflective of a category one hurricane, it would not be at all suprising for damage to be consistent with a category two hurricane given that the system will be intensifying and perhaps rapidly so at landfall. This is because intensifying systems often more proficientlly mix higher winds gusts down to the surface. First Call: Issued Thursday 7/4 @ 11 PM:

I don't and have never expected significant intensification until midday Sunday into the afternoon. No sweat.

I interpret that as the guidance having concerns with respect to the storm structure...as in can it tighten that new core up, then its off to the races.

Well, to be fair, I can see why it can be argued that it was not east tiled strictly in terms of ENSO regions SSTS...but the Hadley Cell was definitely slightly east and the atmosphere behaved as such that season. Anyway, like I said...I have it down as hybrid, not east.

I think part of the issue is weighting 1.2 as heavily as the other regions when calculating..that is ill advised. A- Region 1.2 is minuscule in size compared to the other regions. B- Its very volatile...considering that and viewing the maps, the event was clearly centered in regions 3 and 3.4.

You evidently don't understand what a Modoki is.

Larry, you can calculate weekly readings all you want, that event is not a Modoki. Its basin-wide.

Ironic that the NW eye wall is open when that was the first quadrant to redevelop a wall in the first place...

I probably should have made that over a bit further west to fair, but you get the point....anyway, I have 2010-2011 calsified as a basin-wide/hybrid event.

If you just look at strictly SSTs across the ENSO regions, I guess I could see the argument for more of a slightly westward lean in 2010, but you need to look on where the most extreme anomaly node and attendant Hadley Cell are centered.....this is what actually matters. The raw metrics can lead us astray sometimes.

THIS is more of a Modoki...

This is what I am talking about..on what planet is this a Modoki???

Incorrect.

It was not Modoki. it was basin-wide with an east tilt.

Yea, east-based events tend to have more poleward Aleutian ridging....but even without that, you can still do okay if things break right. 2007-2008 had a pretty flat ridge.

Keep us posted...FEMA is on standby in case you need to don an umbrella.

What is most notable is that these precede diurnal max....