Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    73,331

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is like a nightmare form which I just can't awaken...its like the meteorology hobbyist version of the movie "Groundhog Day".....I'm Bill Murray.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely...this is why when we use the 1991-2020 climo period to measure older analogs, there is a sea of greater heights that washes everything out. This is why I use the 1951-2010 climo period quite often...but of course, it goes both ways. If you use a more recent analog for that period, then its a sea of blue. I try use that all encompasing 1951-2010 climo period when the composite is comprised of a wider range of years....like seasonal forecast composites, for instance.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I see I missed another CC circle-jerk....Bluewave brings the toys, Tip the lotion and Chuck supplies the basket. Neat.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like 2022-2023 without the blocking.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Huge +WPO
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like I have learned a lot from the past couple of poor results. I will save you the trouble...won't be out prior to Monday.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That being said, it doesn't really change my mind with respect to anything in the grand scheme of things...just want to win dork-brownie points for verification purposes.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, seems as though I am going to have to capitaulate at least somewhat to the guidance that has been backing off for the past month.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Only reason I am quiet is because I'm balls deep in the Outlook...almost done with the Pacific, then the rest should be an easier task.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we have been saying that for a while now...I'm beginning to have some last second reservations about it TBH...especially with respect to intensity.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh...last year was utterly hopeless, but the year before wasn't far off from a decent season where I am.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for that article by the way....I referenced it a couple of times in my work this season.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't read back that far, but still no issue.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Accept that it won't snow in November? Done.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't know, everything I have looked at indicates that it's more of a concern than a worry.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm about halfway home on this year's effort...bringing a renewed perspective this year that is less ENSO saturated and more CC conscious. Hope to post early next week.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, which is deceiving beause the western Pacific was so different. Weaker MEI/RONI merely mean that that exatra tropical regions will be more influential, but it doesn't necessarily mean cold.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Caveat being I wouldn't quite place last year's El Nino in that grouping...perhaps 1972, but def. not the rest.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    1984 is the only event that was this meager from an ASO ONI standpoint that went on to sniff moderate (-1.1).
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    While obviously the climate has changed significantly since then, this is clearly the nadir of this cold phase and we should begin to see a recovery in the trend line over the next few years.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting from a weather dork, statistical standpoint, but really not important in the grand scheme. We all know the PDO will be -5.56 in the seasonal mean and have known since like May.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I said to @snowman19when he pointed out that 2016-2017 had somewhat of a +PDO, so we may see even less snowfall relative to that year. While that is true, I do not expect the polar domain to be quite so hostile FWIW.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have been beating that drum for awhile now....are his posts one sided? Sure, but if that warrants 5 PPD, shit...take a look at my past couple of outlooks and limit me.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    You will love my outlook.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hadn't seen anyone so out of touch to suggest that Bluewave has a cold bias...bravo. Quite literally a first.
×
×
  • Create New...