40/70 Benchmark

I was a bit nervous for a spell, but feel better about my December call now.

Yea...1972, 1982, 1997, 2015......several more years and we're due.

Such is mid life in a constant catabolic state.

Festive Winter Preview on Tap for Some Areas Early Thursday Plan to Allow Extra Time for Thursday AM Commute A weak system will provide much of the region with a winter preview on Thursday morning, and while accumulating snowfall will primarily be confined to the higher terrain and deep interior, even the Boston metro area may see some snow flakes mixing in with the rain during the morning commute. Thus while this system is not anticipated to be a major event, it remains worthy of ample consideration due to both the time of impact and the reality that the vast majority of the region has yet to record measurable snowfall this season. Synoptic Overview: A weak lobe is poised to separate from the polar vortex during the day today, as a ridge simultaneously begins to amplify along the west coast. The ridge out west will continue to amplify as the PV lobe continues its descent SSE into the US. The amplification of the upstream ridge will allow the system to continue to grow more cohesive throughout the day on Wednesday as it approaches the Great Lakes. And subsequently moves into New York State on Thursday, at which point precipitation will overspread much of New England. Although the system will encounter an arctic airmass over the region, its track through northern New England will allow weak southerly inflow to scour out enough of the cold to ensure primarily rainfall over the coastal plain. However, the higher terrain is likely to see its first plowable snowfall, while all of the interior records its first measurable snowfall. This evolution is expected to complicate the Thursday morning commute at least to some degree. Anticipated Storm Evolution Light snow showers over the interior and rain showers near the coast should overspread the region by midnight late Wednesday evening. Precipitation will become steadier during the predawn hours, as rainfall roughly inside of 128 and mixed precipitation within the 128/495 belt. Primarily snowfall will be the rule near I-495 and beyond. Precipitation may end as a brief burst of more moderate snowfall closer to the coast during the Thursday morning commute prior to tapering off an ending by late morning. First & Final Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/12/festive-winter-preview-on-tap-for-some.html

Go NAM.

Maybe hold the 1997 redux off until about 2033 or so...

Yea, I understand there are caveats abound. We are due for a 1997 type of El Nino, but hopefully after the turn of the decade, which is when I think we could have a very favorable period, otherwise.

I think this deviations should grow easier to come by over the next few years as the Pacific cold phase relinquishes its grip. Caveat being I think polar blockking may be scarcer as we enter the descending phase of the solar cycle.

I expect a similar, but modified outcome next month...perhaps without the blizzard and still slightly above normal.

Meh.

My area did just fine in early Feb 2021, January 2022 and even March 2023 across the interior.

Yea, I learned that the hard way....the lower RONI being more reflective of competing sources, rather than simply a weaker El Nino was great way to conceptuialize it. I think it work better for an El Nino like 2002 or 1957...in which the lower RONI was reflecvtive of a more Modoki look.

Yea, the WSO goes negative, and we're porked.

Agree.

I think we will.

I agree for the most part, but with some caveats relative to the bolded....sure, the cold will be focused west the majority of the time, however, don't understate the importance of Bering sea ridging in making it slighly more accessible to the east than it was in 2022-2023. This is especially true if we get more +PNA intervals, which I suspect that we will in January. I agree that it won't be as severe as 2013-2014 simply because the favorable Pacific won't be as consistent, but I think we will see some variability that includes periods like that during expecially the month of January.

I feel pretty good about December relative to my expectation, although I will probably be a bit too warm due to the unanticipated magnitude of that WWB. The lower and of my +3 to +5 my still work.

I am on the same page as you.

Big difference I see from 2022 is the WPO, which is remaining fairly negative as anticipated. Even with that mild pattern, we still have higher heights in the Bering Sea. This is why the season shouldn't be as bad as that year.

Not bad.

January will be nice IMO.

Yea...Dec 2022 was my favorite analog going in.

We may have had generally the right idea, just perhaps a bit more of a protracted cold shot early in the month relative to expectation, due to the extreme WWB.

If it isn't going to snow, I would rather it warm up for selfush reasons.