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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    He doesn't do seasonal outlooks...just like two week increments.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, one thing I have learned over the past few years is to remain humble and always open to alternative thoughts...don't be afraid to admit error, incoporate feedback and alternate methodologies. A closed-mind and an expanding skill set are mutually exclusive.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def become the MJO of SNE....need to get that man a cruiser.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this is how very long range guidance like that should be used....view it as a tool to bolster confidence in a scenario that is supported by pages upon pages of data, as opposed to just blindly hoping its correct. Maybe all of the data can still ultimately be flushed down the toilet, but betters odds that way.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    2022...it was a great analog....but like @donsutherland1has been saying, there should be more variability this season. I am pretty confident of that.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bingo-
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can tell you that I am pretty confident I am going to beat the guidance this month by a comfortable margin, and the primary reason why is taking what Chris has been saying into consideration, as opposed to dismissing it out of frustration.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still say it ends up + in the seasonal mean, but nothing crazy....the WPO is what can hopefully allow us to salvage something.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Isn't the goal to cherry pick the correct solutions, as that as what he has consistently done for the past 3 years or so....would you like him to pick some terds to level off the verification score?
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree with that, but doesn't necessairly mean an awful month.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    There are worse matches.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    2006 is another pissah December analog.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll be suprised if we don't flip back by early January, but then again, I have been suprised for the better part of the last 2 years.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Never a great sign to see 1998 and 1994 littering the CPC analog charts.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just mean relative to expectation. I think most of us had a low bar for this month, aside from that week-long modeling keg party.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    That isn't to imply we will get crushed, thereafter....just an honest assessment of how December looked to me. I do think January will be decent.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the December 1999 analog from my forecast composite rearing its head....def some shades of 2022, as well.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    No complaints so far...anything in December is gravy IMO.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gonna update this map slightly tonight because I acidentally omittted the 4"+ area in the NW CT hills and southern Berks.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think like 25"......jack was like 10mi nw of me, where Lowell and Westford area had like 3'. I was all over that closing off later than guidance indicated. I remember I went into the NYC thread and said that after that run giving them like 3', but it wasn't well received...go figure.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would take an inch and run at my place...at least look festive through the weekend.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I honestly meant to place a locally up to 4" area in the Litchfield hills and southern Berks...will add that in tonight.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Solid consensus.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think its imminent given the magnitude of last year's El Nino.
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