40/70 Benchmark

I think we see slow, steady intensification for the next 36-48 hours.

I think there is about a 12 hour window for potential RI during the day on Thursday, after the core is well established and its over the loop current before some drier air begins getting entrained the final few hours prior to LF....probably from about 00z Thursday and onward.

I was just noticing that...about 25% of the ensembles do, as well...a few GEFS members do, too.

I love using 700-500RH....often reveals subtle red flags in guidance that are not always reflected well im raw intensity output....kind of a akin to clown maps dropping a 20" snowgasm only to notice razor thin warm layers and/or drier air at 700-800mb.

I wonder if ultimately all this delay does is act to pushback any ERC until near landfall, if at all.

You should do an outlook this year.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/consensus-aligning-with-expectations.html

Just fiishing up an in depth update on La Nina and first glimpse at potential winter compisites...shoud publish tonight. My thoughts on La Nina have not changed at all. I never bought that La Nada fake out.

Yea, the obstinance is absolutey reprehensible (and repulsive)...that is a different matter altogether.

I don't understand dismissing a met because he has busted horribly in the past...if you are going to strictly adhere to that, then you aren't going to be left with anyone to follow.

I'm just talking about the deviation from the west PAC forcing and the influence on sensible weather. That said, I don't see wall-to-wall juggernaut PV, either.

I think something like 20-21 and 21-22 is attainable.

I'm sure it won't be thst cold due to the west Pac warm pool in conjunction with overall CC, but it should be better than last year. Hopefully we get some amplified MC MJO acitivty in October per Bluewave to confirm my suspicion of some periods of disconnect from that wretched west Pac warmth.

I will say that it doesn't matter as much with a weaker La Nina....2008 was a weaket Modoki La Nina with a -PDO and very favorable north Pac....not a horrible analog. The cool ENSO walker cell will not be completley overwhelming like it was two years ago.

The reason for the variation is due to both the differences in placement of each el nino in terms of max anomalies relative to the entire Pacific basin...the ongoinf huge west pac warn pool is related to why none of those seasons had had nearly as deep a -PDO. Pretty clear that 1972 was by far the best march of the 3 in hindsight. I got that wrong and have learned a great deal from it.

I'm not sure what he is smoking with the east-based la Nina claim...its been rapidly shiftng for awhile now.

Its a great ONI analog...the best IMO.

I did well with 2016-2017, 2017-2018, 2020-2021 and 2021-2022.

Nah, should peak between -1.0 and -1.2...late SOI response will hold it back.

.04" Cracy that ACK is getting like 12/11/92 type of QPF.

Classic case of exaggerating the importance of a new tool or morcel of info...guy has been basing his entire analog composite on subsurface. Frankly, I'm not really concerned with 2025-2026 ENSO at this point, but I will add that La Nina remaining modest decreases the likelihood of El Nino next year (delayed oscillation theory), which is probably related to the subsurface issue. It has utility, but I just think he is overreliant on it.

@weatherwiz

The temp and precip anomaly plotting tool should be updated to include September 2024 soon...they are having some technical issues. Cc:[email protected] Fri, Sep 20 at 9:25 AM Hi Thanks for emailing. We are having unusual technical issues updating the dataset this month. We hope to have it updated soon. Cathy Smith answering for PSL data Show original message

No it doesn't...we just had a strong el nino with a deeply negative PDO last year.