40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I honed in on that...here is in excerpt from my outook: Western & Northern Pacific May Be Crucial for Winter 2024-2025 The winter pattern over the northern and western Pacific will play an instrumental role in dictating what type of variation is seen from the predominate MC forcing this winter season, especially since La Nina appears poised to assume a secondary role this year. Meteorologist Eric Webb has posited that an area of anomalously warm SSTs over the tropical Pacific in the vicinity of 150-160 degrees east longitude may be a reasonably skilled indicator with respect to the WPO during the ensuing winter season. The theory essentially is that anomalous sea surface warmth in the vicinity of 150-160 degrees East longitude in the tropical Pacific increases convection and convergence near the surface, which leads to negative outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) anomalies aloft, or divergence and sinking air. If this persists into the winter season, it correlates to the opposite pattern over the higher latitudes in the area of the Bering sea, which means sinking air and ridging at the surface in this area. This would obviously yield a -WPO pattern in the DM seasonal mean. As a point of reference, here is the October SST anomaly profile in this area prior to the strongly negative DM period of 2013-2014. And the resultant DM pattern. Here is the October 2020 SST pattern preceding the strongly positive 2020-2021 season, which is the most prominent +WPO member of the variation data set. Note the pronounced +WPO despite the variation within the PNA and polar domains that allowed for a prolonged early to mid season wintry interlude over the northeast. Here are the October 2017 SST anomalies that preceded the more moderately +WPO winter of 2017-2018. The WPO did not provide a particularly strong signal that season and the warmth over the east was subdued by the EPO/NAO blocking in tandem with +PNA. Here is the October SST anomaly pattern that yielded a -WPO/+PNA reprieve from the predominate MC forcing during the 2021-2022 winter season. And the resultant pattern that led to a noteworthy wintry interlude mid season in the absence of high latitude blocking over Greenland or the Arctic. Here is the SST anomaly pattern from October 2022 that preceded the strongly positive WPO winter of 2022-2023. The strong polar blocking in March was insufficient to overcome a hostile Pacific for the east coast, which was largely left unscathed, at least in terms of snowfall, by a stormy beginning and end to the season. Finally, here is the SST anomaly chart from October 2024. The SST anomaly profile this year most closely resembles that of the severely negative WPO seasons of 2013-2014 and 2021-2022. Considering this composite match, the forecast for the DM mean WPO value is within the range of -.40 to -.70, and given the strong tendency for +EPO among the cool ENSO deviation dataset, the JM EPO is predicted to register anywhere within a range of .30 to .60. This is anticipated as being the primary distinction between the coming season and 2013-2014, which also featured a severely negative JM mean EPO value of -.89, and was thus very cold relative to the modern climate. For the sake of perspective, a comparison between the North Pacific SST anomaly pattern in the Gulf of Alaska during October 2014 and 2011 are provided; each preceding contrasting extreme variations of the seasonal EPO pattern. Note that while clearly October of 2024 represents a compromise that is as extreme as either depiction, it does more closely resemble the warmer, October 2011 anomaly, suggestive of a more moderately +EPO seasonal mean during the coming winter. Lending credence to this forecast for a predominately +EPO/-WPO during the coming winter season is the subgroup of older extra Pacific analogs, including 1973, and 1974, which are uncoincidentally from the secondary PDO nadir just prior to the end of the previous Pacific cold phase, as well as 1954, 1955, 1970, 1971, 1999, 2007 and 2010. This general idea has support from some seasonal guidance, granted it manifests differently with a more exaggerated southeast ridge during this modern era.

Yup....do we kick the can with respect to the MJO signal in December, like last year, or does it come to fruition... Def. interested in hearing your thoughts on my outlook this year, whenever you get aorund to it.

He is like @MJO812 10 years ago.

I am more on the -WPO train, but if we get both...yea, that is the upside. I went +EPO..... Both is 2013-2014.

I won't be suprised if the region is above normal in snowfall....but I need to be conservative after the past couple of busts.

Yea, I have gotten myself into trouble forecasting upside chases too much lately, so I couldn't do it again....but I see a path.

There are def. signs of a better north Pacific...I would bet my life that is what is driving some of these doomsday deviations.

Starting to see some subtle signs of a potential light at the end of this proverbial Pacific-carnage tunnel, too.

I really don't think this winter is going to be a complete no-show again. Pretty confident in modestly better Pacific relative to last year providing some decent chances.

What are your thoughts...similar, warmer, better?

I ended up going +3 to +5 in Dec for the mid Atl and NE...hopefully I don't end up too cool....the potential translation of the MJO into phase 6 beyond mid month and towards the holiday is what kept me from really going bonkers.

Generally agree, but think more WPO.

I think around 12/16 could begin a window, but just leery of can-kicking.

Regardless of what La Niña does, I agree on that this year.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html

Yea, all I care about is the peak ONI value, anyway.

No, its very precarious...I agree. Toughest ENSO call in the 11 years I have been at this.

The issue I see is the trades are west, while the subsurface is east.....gonna need them to overlap a bit on the western periphery of 3.4.

Subsurface is neutral over the western half, which means it won't go Modoki....-1 to -2C over the eastern half.

Careful with the PDO....it's as much of a reflection of the past regime as it is a predictor of the future....ie the momentum is just as important. If begins climbing rather abruptly....

Eh...I wouldn't say that yet. 2008 is a great ENSO analog and it racked up ONI by hanging out near peak for a relatively long duration, rather than reaching a low weekly. It was -0.1 at this point on the weekly and peaked at 0.8 ONI.