40/70 Benchmark

Well, it stands to reason that global warming is muting its significance, like John says with the HC expansion etc. Not disputing that, but I don't think it should be ignored, either.

Coating.

ENSO is not meaningless IMO. It's not the prominent driver that it once was.

I'm bullish in the sense that I buy into a favorable couple of weeks, but make no mistake about it, I don't expect Boston to get like 70" and I still think Feb is a torch.

Except the past two...last year I was right about the quick start, and mid winter lull, but the pattern came back too late.

It also insulates the ground if we ever get an arctic plunge.

Nah. I think we are in for solid stretch and a decent winter all said.

Well, we are on track for a decent winter....just focus on that, and if it turns epic, great.

Isn't eastern Canada this side of the globe?

I'm just having fun with it....healthiest thing one can do.

Weight the one that avoids SNE snow at least excuse imaginable the most.

LOL tic-tock...

Yea, I think we will eventually do okay, but not this wknd.

I'm out on this threat. Hope I'm wrong, but not feeling it here. Good luck.

Yes.

Next.

I haven't cared enough to look at RAD.

Another porker here...hardly a coating.

First half of January may well be a wash, at this point. I know the great pattern was always mid month, but you hope to catch a break beforehand, and it doesn't look like we will.

Yea, the was a sharp cut-off near the ocean in the Boston area....I had like 6" at school in Salem, but like 2" of sand at home in Wilmington.

Not all, but it whiffed alot of it.

Like you said, not quite perfectly....ended up a bit more snow than I forecast, and the Pacific drove the bus, but it was a good call all things considered.

There is always the chance of an outlook being great, but one storm missing due to a nuance...those are the breaks. It also happens in sports, and life in general. Those are the breaks that distinguish victory from the jaws of defeat.....all you can do is try to place yourself in the best possible position, and hope to get lucky enough to avail of your work. That happened to me in 2016 with the mid atlantic blizzard....great call and everything from a seasonal level, but because it whiffed New England totally, my seasonal totals were way off up here. Those are the breaks, and you need to understand that....so I'm not sure why the need to endlessly adding that qualifier. We all know this....its implicit. I think in the end, there will definitely be value in the big January calls because I think the NAO is going to come to fruition....I think we will all understand the value of the contributions of those like Cosgrove and Steve, who went big in January. @Isotherm did, too....so some good company there. I had an okay January overall, but was struggling with when the pattern went to crap, which I still think that it will...looks to hold off until Feb, though.

Technically, no, but I came about as close you can get. Read it. I didn't have the technical prowess that I have now, as that was my initial foray into seasonal forecasting, but I explained why I thought that season would turn ferocious after a quiet first half.