AdamHLG

As we sit here today, I think we are exactly where we want to be for next weekend based on what I learn on this forum every winter: 1) We don't want to be in the bullseye 10 days out; 2) We are OK because these events always trend north; 3) we are also ok because these events always trend south; 3) weekend rule; 4) the storm will make its own cold air; 5) the models did not ingest the latest data from airplanes; and 6) its a Baja ejection thing so no worries. We are so back.

I rate the likelihood of a storm by how many new pages to a thread get posted here after a suite of model runs. I don’t have science behind it but it’s the most accurate read of the situation. .

From what I gather there was some good news or one hell of a lot of willing this storm northwest. I guess I’ll need to look now too. .

Just …. Wow .

This is shaping up to be a classic storm. For those that have been here a while you know your own climo. If past major storms flipped to sleet it’s going to happen again. If you’re N&W of the metros you’ll flip toward the end - maybe. I think climo situational awareness is just as important as model runs. .

If you're bored waiting for the King, take a look in the other thread for NEXT weekend.

Has there been any updates in the data today as to potential onset time? Ive heard from noon Saturday to overnight Sunday.

I would think for Baltimore area - north the Kuchera Ratio would be more accurate (if we want to call it that - - maybe "applicable" is a better word) based on the temp profiles for a cold powdery snow.

"Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs." I have to admit.... I agree. Call it what you will - global warming, climate change, etc. However, here in northern Baltimore County, 2016 was the last BECS - let alone MECS. It has been 10 years with no end in sight. We used to get hit every 3 years. I am starting to think the dream is over and we may not get hit again outside of a fluke chance storm every 10-15 years - - if that.

Can’t really call it a fail yet. Technically. .

The overcast is rippin' here. Gusts 0-1 mph.

So beautiful this morning. From the jackpot zone just Reisterstown area. 4 + inches in my yard .

Hmmm. Timely article I just read adds another data point...... https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/19/weather/polar-vortex-cold-snowy-december-stratosphere

It feels like in the modern age this list can be locked shut and our days of editing the list to add storms are over. Now, a "top 10 fails" list.... this is where the new action is. Hope this winter proves me wrong.

wow.