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It sucks because the last three days were so great. I didn't even mind the storms on Thursday because they led to a very rare triple rainbow here just before sunset.

Does anyone know if archived Cansips seasonal forecasts are available somewhere so we can easily see how they’ve done overall?

I expect it to be warmer than last year, but not as warm as many of these seasons over the past decade...I don't think it will be prohibitively warm for a lot of us...but I also don't expect a predominate east coast storm track, either. I agree with Chris there.

Currently 86 IMBY with a dewpoint of 10,000.

found a yellow jacket's nest in the lawn while mowing yesterday

Phoenix being so hot for a long time last Summer was an accurate predictor... they broke their record streak of most consecutive 100+ days by 40! The other years that had the streak broken came out with a +PNA and -4f to -5f in the Midwest and East for December and January. I don't think they are as warm so far this Summer, but it is warming there always. Also, the AAO last August was record negative.. that rolled forward at 0.5 correlation to a -AO Dec and Jan.. again, something that hit. The PDO was strongly warm forecast, and that got blown out...

Happy Belated Birthday!!

So… Yesterday was my birthday, and one of the gifts I found for myself was a magazine that documented the 1938 hurricane here in New England. The destruction is jaw dropping.

Yes, they are heavily biased towards stock ENSO composites......and I know Chris called for the mismatch period, as did I, but I don't think anyone forecasted a +PNA and near normal temps in the seasonal mean....as impure as the PNA was at times being biased west and what not.... A mismatch period is one thing, but that just wasn't a warm winter per modern 1991-2010 climo I do think this trend is noteworthy despite the continued cool ENSO favor to the hemisphere...which is why I posted it. Not to claim its going to necessarily be cold.

I just know this type of system overperforms and people will be caught off guard since mt holly really downplaying it rather than hyping

Seasonal models were actually really bad over the PNA region last Winter.. they maybe over-use the recent trend and ENSO.

Right....this is a tough pill for some to swallow, apparently.

Any long range ensemble suite is going to have a smoothed mean....and I know most of the climate guidance is an average of a number of runs smoothed out. This is why you never see 2 feet of snowfall predicated from an ensemble mean at day 7....it doesn't mean it can't happen, nor does it mean that the data doesn't have value. I agree the trend is somewhat important.

CPC doesn't have a super warm Winter forecast right now.. seasonal models going a little cooler is probably why.

Which years? All of the 2nd year La Ninas?

Look like another nice break from the heat after about Wednesday.

I'll bet anyone $1000 that the CANASIPS seasonal was too warm in the fall of 2014 for the subsequent winter of 2014-2015. I mean in the seasonal mean...probably not for December.

If someone had the time, they could go through AmericanWx threads for each winter and find CANSIPS forecast maps (however far back they go) and compare to what verified. Any volunteers?

Seasonal models are never going to accurately depict any anomaly of that magnitude, though....and obviously all of the higher magnitude anomalies have been warm over the past decade, so that is going to cause a cold bias. Go back to the fall of 2014 and show me a seasonal that nailed that anomaly.....

I'd be willing to hazard a guess that the allergies were much lower back then too. I actually didn't have the kind of allergies I have now back in the 80s and 90s. Maybe for a brief period (like one or two weeks) in the spring. Now it's 6 months out of the year. By the way, I'm shocked the wind speed record is over 50 years old, you'd think that either Sandy or the December 1992 noreaster would hold that record.

That's why I like the Cansips...it can be used to argue both sides pretty convincingly! But seriously, as I said in my last post, I think seasonal model trends for a future season, and not a 1 month forecast, are worth following.

the elevation is necessary to get above the shadows of the surrounding buildings.

Yep, as I thought, today is the last good day we will have for awhile, at least the weekend pattern has been changed.

mostly cloudy with scattered heavy showers is a wash out to me.

But much more representative of the concrete jungle urban conditions present in the city.