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70° / 50° what a day. Folks hiking, biking, swimming , playing golf or simply enjoying the beautiful weather! I hope that someday, the miserable shut-ins who spent their day pressing the X or Shit symbols on their phone can one day feel the same joy.

Time to track the tropics Close but goes OTS from here

We track

There are weather variations, regardless of global warming. I do know that California used to manage their forests by clearing underbrush and taking down deadwood. They have stopped all forest management and focused state funds elsewhere. Unfortunately, some activists have set wildfires in the west, hoping to publicize the ill effects of global warming. I realize Canada is a vast forested wilderness, but I wonder if they ever invested in forest management?

Maybe Carol, or not. That one was squeezed between two highs iirc

does this match any U/L wind analogs of hits here? I doubt it

I'd rather it develop more south so it's a slower outcome, otherwise it's def OTS

I rather this

18z GFS has a doozy. Some very weak ensemble support as well. Odds still very much against though.

18z GEFS meh compared to the op.. but water temps are unusually warm

south of roughly 38N or so is primed RTG

sheeesh

This isn’t a way that we get tropical up here, so we’re talking about low odds stuff to begin with. And Chantal aside it’s been hard to get TCG off the EC this year. So it’s worth a casual eye but happy hour is happy hour for a reason.

12z ens guidance- EPS and GEPS depict the more significant precip chances for central/western VA late week, with lesser amounts possible for locations further north/east. The GEFS keeps all notable precip southeast of our region.

1 month from now is the light at the end of the tunnel moment. September can still be damn hot

Peak sun angle and late June type heat is done but there's plenty of heat left. Looks really dull 1st half of August though but models are starting to ramp up the tropics so 2nd half will be more interesting

The boundary off the EC that has allowed the current lemon to develop doesn’t really go anywhere, and it opens the door for a secondary area of vorticity to develop and get trapped along the coast. GFS and Euro have hinted at that potential the last few days but obviously nothing that strong.

Do you ever look at the ensemble guidance? It's inherently less volatile run to run in the LR, and gives us an indication of forecast uncertainty. A single deterministic model cannot do this.

Day at cape cod cane brush

Beer

Snow?

What the heck is the GFS doing..

I wish it was a little warmer right now. 74 is ok but wish it was warmer

The second half of November is right around the corner! Love me some hoodie season.